Real-time operational forecasting on shipboard of the Iceland-Faeroe frontal variability
Real-time operational forecasting on shipboard of the Iceland-Faeroe frontal variability
复制标题
冰岛-法罗锋面变率船上实时业务预报
DOI：
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发表时间：
1996
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
W. Leslie
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Robinson;H. Arango;A. Miller;A. Warn;P. Poulain;W. Leslie
摘要首次用原始方程模式进行了冰岛-法罗锋面变化的实时船载业务预报。1993年8月期间进行的高质量、密集的水文调查被用于预报的初始化、更新和验证。在几天的时间尺度上发生了剧烈而快速的天气事件，包括冰岛-法罗锋面向东南方向的重新定位和一个强大的，寒冷的深袜子曲流的发展。对这些预报技巧的定性和定量评估表明，它们抓住了这两个事件的基本特征。异常模式的相关系数和预测和观测场之间的均方根误差是特别令人印象深刻的（和实质上上级持久性）的预测的冷曲流。
Abstract Real-time operational shipboard forecasts of Iceland-Faeroe frontal variability were executed for the first time with a primitive equation mode. High quality, intensive hydrographic surveys during August 1993 were used for initialization, updating, and validation of the forecasts. Vigorous and rapid synoptic events occurred over several-day timescales including a southeastward reorientation of the Iceland-Faeroe Front and the development of a strong, cold deep-sock meander. A qualitative and quantitative assessment of the skill of these forecasts shows they captured the essential features of both events. The anomaly pattern correlation coefficient and the rms error between forecast and observed fields are particularly impressive (and substantially superior to persistence) for the forecast of the cold meander.