Local topographic wetness indices predict household malaria risk better than land-use and land-cover in the western Kenya highlands.
Local topographic wetness indices predict household malaria risk better than land-use and land-cover in the western Kenya highlands.
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DOI：
10.1186/1475-2875-9-328
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发表时间：
2010-11-16
期刊：
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
Wilson ML
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cohen JM;Ernst KC;Lindblade KA;Vulule JM;John CC;Wilson ML
确定高风险疟疾疫源地有助于在最需要的地区加强监测或控制活动。疟疾风险与土地利用/土地覆盖之间的关联是公认的，但这些环境特征与土地的地形（如丘陵、山谷、海拔）密切相关，地形也对疟疾风险产生强烈影响。分析土地覆盖/土地利用变量对疟疾风险的个别贡献，需要在其地形景观的背景下审查这些关联。这项研究考察了诸如土地覆盖、土地利用和城市密度等环境因素是否能改善仅基于地形决定的背景（由地形湿度指数测量）的疟疾风险预测。地形湿度指数是对特定区域预测的水积累的估计，它是由肯尼亚西部两个相邻高地社区家庭周围景观的数字地形模型生成的。在家庭水平上计算确定的变量，以最好地包含地形湿度表面的变化。使用基于目标的分类方法从高分辨率卫星图像中提取土地覆盖/土地利用信息。地形和土地覆盖变量分别和组合使用，通过迭代的分样本模型拟合和测试程序来预测社区的家庭疟疾。将仅包含地形变量的模型与包含与土地覆盖/土地利用相关的额外预测因素的模型进行比较，以调查这些环境因素是否能改善仅基于土地形状的疟疾预测。与地形湿度有关的变量在预测这一崎岖地形地区感染疟疾的个体的家庭中被证明是最有用的。与人类改造环境有关的其他变量也显示出与家庭疟疾的明显关联。然而，这些土地覆盖/土地利用变量未能在控制重要地形因素的统计预测模型中产生明确的改进，在75%以上的时间里，没有任何一项改进家庭疟疾的预测。与考虑土地覆盖/土地利用特征相比，该地区地形高度变化的地形湿度值更准确地预测了疟疾风险更高的房屋。因此，类似高地地区的规划控制或局部消除策略可以利用地形和地理特征有效地确定可能需要加强警惕的高接受性区域。
Identification of high-risk malaria foci can help enhance surveillance or control activities in regions where they are most needed. Associations between malaria risk and land-use/land-cover are well-recognized, but these environmental characteristics are closely interrelated with the land's topography (e.g., hills, valleys, elevation), which also influences malaria risk strongly. Parsing the individual contributions of land-cover/land-use variables to malaria risk requires examining these associations in the context of their topographic landscape. This study examined whether environmental factors like land-cover, land-use, and urban density improved malaria risk prediction based solely on the topographically-determined context, as measured by the topographic wetness index. The topographic wetness index, an estimate of predicted water accumulation in a defined area, was generated from a digital terrain model of the landscape surrounding households in two neighbouring western Kenyan highland communities. Variables determined to best encompass the variance in this topographic wetness surface were calculated at a household level. Land-cover/land-use information was extracted from a high-resolution satellite image using an object-based classification method. Topographic and land-cover variables were used individually and in combination to predict household-level malaria in the communities through an iterative split-sample model fitting and testing procedure. Models with only topographic variables were compared to those with additional predictive factors related to land-cover/land-use to investigate whether these environmental factors improved prediction of malaria based on the shape of the land alone. Variables related to topographic wetness proved most useful in predicting the households of individuals contracting malaria in this region of rugged terrain. Other variables related to human modification of the environment also demonstrated clear associations with household malaria. However, these land-cover/land-use variables failed to produce unambiguous improvements in statistical predictive models controlling for important topographic factors, with none improving prediction of household-level malaria more than 75% of the time. Topographic wetness values in this region of highly varied terrain more accurately predicted houses at greater risk of malaria than did consideration of land-cover/land-use characteristics. As such, those planning control or local elimination strategies in similar highland regions may use topographic and geographic characteristics to effectively identify high-receptivity regions that may require enhanced vigilance.
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影响因子：
1.8
作者：
PICARD, RR;BERK, KN
通讯作者：
BERK, KN
影响因子：
2.3
作者：
Copas, J B
通讯作者：
Copas, J B
DOI：
10.1109/tgrs.2004.837325
发表时间：
2005-03-01
影响因子：
8.2
作者：
Wilkinson, GG
通讯作者：
Wilkinson, GG
中国按蚊群（双翅目：蚊科）：核糖体 DNA 内转录间隔区 2 序列推断的物种区分和系统发育关系
影响因子：
2.1
作者：
Afrane, YA;Lawson, BW;Yan, GY
通讯作者：
Yan, GY
影响因子：
--
作者：
Hay, S I;Omumbo, J A;Craig, M H;Snow, R W
通讯作者：
Snow, R W