Reductions in Risk Based on Time Offense-Free in the Community: Once a Sexual Offender, Not Always a Sexual Offender
Reductions in Risk Based on Time Offense-Free in the Community: Once a Sexual Offender, Not Always a Sexual Offender
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DOI：
10.1037/law0000135
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发表时间：
2018-02-01
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Thornton, David
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hanson, R. Karl;Harris, Andrew J. R.;Thornton, David
虽然人们普遍认为，大多数有犯罪记录的人最终都可以重新融入社会，但公众对性犯罪者有不同的期望。在许多国家，有性犯罪历史的个人受到广泛的长期住房和就业限制，以及旨在防止他们在未被注意到的情况下融入守法公民群体的公开通知措施。这篇文章考察了可检验的假设，即有性犯罪历史的个人存在经久不衰的性累犯风险。我们在一个大的组合样本(N>；7,000)中模拟了长期(25年)的性再犯风险。我们发现，有性侵犯病史的人在社区中保持无性侵犯行为的时间越长，发生新的性侵犯的可能性就越低。在所有年龄段和所有初始风险水平都发现了这种影响。在随访期内的非性侵犯增加了随后的性再次犯罪的风险，而与时间自由效应无关。在10到15年后，大多数有性犯罪史的人并不比没有性犯罪史的人更有可能犯下新的性犯罪。因此，旨在管理性累犯风险的政策需要包括各种机制，以调整最初的风险分类，并确定有性犯罪历史的个人应从与“性犯罪者”标签相关的条件和限制中解脱出来的期限。
Whereas there is a common assumption that most individuals with a criminal record can be eventually reintegrated into the community, the public has different expectations for sexual offenders. In many countries, individuals with a history of sexual offenses are subject to a wide range of long-term restrictions on housing and employment, as well as public notification measures intended to prevent them from merging unnoticed into the population of law-abiding citizens. This article examines the testable assumption that individuals with a history of sexual crime present an enduring risk for sexual recidivism. We modeled the long-term (25-year) risk of sexual recidivism in a large, combined sample (N > 7,000). We found that the likelihood of new sexual offenses declined the longer individuals with a history of sexual offending remain sexual offense-free in the community. This effect was found for all age groups and all initial risk levels. Nonsexual offending during the follow-up period increased the risk of subsequent sexual recidivism independent of the time free effect. After 10 to 15 years, most individuals with a history of sexual offenses were no more likely to commit a new sexual offense than individuals with a criminal history that did not include sexual offenses. Consequently, policies designed to manage the risk of sexual recidivism need to include mechanisms to adjust initial risk classifications and determine time periods where individuals with a history of sexual crime should be released from the conditions and restrictions associated with the "sexual offender" label.