Dynamics of the 2001 UK foot and mouth epidemic: Stochastic dispersal in a heterogeneous landscape
Dynamics of the 2001 UK foot and mouth epidemic: Stochastic dispersal in a heterogeneous landscape
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DOI：
10.1126/science.1065973
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发表时间：
2001-10-26
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
Grenfell, BT
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Keeling, MJ;Woolhouse, MEJ;Grenfell, BT
口蹄疫是世界上最重要的经济牲畜疾病之一。我们开发了一个基于个体农场的随机模型，描述了当前英国的疫情。流行病学数据的细微颗粒以异常高的时空分辨率揭示了感染的动态。我们发现，农场的空间分布、规模和物种组成都会影响疫情的观测模式和区域变异性。另一个关键的动力成分是感染的长尾随机传播，结合了频繁的局部运动和偶尔的跳远。我们评估了疫情的历史和可能的持续时间，控制策略的执行情况，以及对疾病动态在空间和时间上的一般影响。
Foot-and-mouth is one of the world's most economically important livestock diseases. We developed an individual farm-based stochastic model of the current UK epidemic. The fine grain of the epidemiological data reveals the infection dynamics at an unusually high spatiotemporal resolution. We show that the spatial distribution, size, and species composition of farms all influence the observed pattern and regional variability of outbreaks. The other key dynamical component is long-tailed stochastic dispersal of infection, combining frequent local movements with occasional long jumps. We assess the history and possible duration of the epidemic, the performance of control strategies, and general implications for disease dynamics in space and time.