Incorporating evolutionary adaptation in species distribution modelling reduces projected vulnerability to climate change
Incorporating evolutionary adaptation in species distribution modelling reduces projected vulnerability to climate change
复制标题
在物种分布模型中纳入进化适应性因素，可降低预测的物种对气候变化的脆弱性。
DOI：
10.1111/ele.12696
复制
发表时间：
2016-12-01
期刊：
影响因子：
8.8
通讯作者：
Ferrier, Simon
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Bush, Alex;Mokany, Karel;Ferrier, Simon
基于物种对持续气候变化的敏感性，以及它们在追踪合适条件方面面临的众多挑战，人们对物种适应气候压力的能力越来越感兴趣。在这里，我们开发并应用了一种新的通用建模方法（AdaptR），该方法将通过生理限制、表型可塑性、进化适应和扩散的适应能力纳入物种分布建模框架。我们使用 AdaptR 来预测 17 种澳大利亚果蝇（果蝇科）的分布变化，结果表明，考虑到适应能力，到 2105 年，预计范围损失可减少高达 33%。我们确定了可能发生局部适应的位置，并应用敏感性分析来确定参数不确定时感兴趣的关键因素。我们的研究表明，一些物种可能没有以前想象的那么脆弱，并表明时空适应性模型可以帮助改善管理干预措施，支持增强物种对气候变化的适应能力。
Based on the sensitivity of species to ongoing climate change, and numerous challenges they face tracking suitable conditions, there is growing interest in species' capacity to adapt to climatic stress. Here, we develop and apply a new generic modelling approach (AdaptR) that incorporates adaptive capacity through physiological limits, phenotypic plasticity, evolutionary adaptation and dispersal into a species distribution modelling framework. Using AdaptR to predict change in the distribution of 17 species of Australian fruit flies (Drosophilidae), we show that accounting for adaptive capacity reduces projected range losses by up to 33% by 2105. We identify where local adaptation is likely to occur and apply sensitivity analyses to identify the critical factors of interest when parameters are uncertain. Our study suggests some species could be less vulnerable than previously thought, and indicates that spatiotemporal adaptive models could help improve management interventions that support increased species' resilience to climate change.