Stratified coastal ocean interactions with tropical cyclones.
Stratified coastal ocean interactions with tropical cyclones.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1038/ncomms10887
复制
发表时间：
2016-03-08
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Kohut J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Glenn SM;Miles TN;Seroka GN;Xu Y;Forney RK;Yu F;Roarty H;Schofield O;Kohut J
飓风强度预报的改进目前落后于飓风轨迹预报的进展。飓风艾琳（2011年）期间的综合海洋观测和模拟显示，风力驱动的分层沿海海洋双层环流以及由此产生的剪切混合导致了大片大陆架上眼中心前显著和快速的冷却（至少6 ℃，最高可达11 ℃）。大气模拟确定这种冷却是再现艾琳加速强度降低所需的缺失贡献。1985年至2015年的历史浮标显示，在分层夏季条件下，穿越中大西洋湾大陆架的所有11个热带气旋都发生了眼中心前冷却。黄海浮标同样显示，台风梅花（2011年）期间，眼中心前方出现了显著和快速的冷却。这些研究结果表明，随着海平面上升和热带气旋最大强度向极地迁移，在风暴强度和影响的预测中包括现实的沿海斜压过程对中纬度人口中心越来越重要。 飓风强度的准确预报仍然是个问题。在这里，使用海洋观测网络为海洋和大气模型模拟提供信息，作者表明，考虑眼前冷却可以改善强度预测。
Hurricane-intensity forecast improvements currently lag the progress achieved for hurricane tracks. Integrated ocean observations and simulations during hurricane Irene (2011) reveal that the wind-forced two-layer circulation of the stratified coastal ocean, and resultant shear-induced mixing, led to significant and rapid ahead-of-eye-centre cooling (at least 6 °C and up to 11 °C) over a wide swath of the continental shelf. Atmospheric simulations establish this cooling as the missing contribution required to reproduce Irene's accelerated intensity reduction. Historical buoys from 1985 to 2015 show that ahead-of-eye-centre cooling occurred beneath all 11 tropical cyclones that traversed the Mid-Atlantic Bight continental shelf during stratified summer conditions. A Yellow Sea buoy similarly revealed significant and rapid ahead-of-eye-centre cooling during Typhoon Muifa (2011). These findings establish that including realistic coastal baroclinic processes in forecasts of storm intensity and impacts will be increasingly critical to mid-latitude population centres as sea levels rise and tropical cyclone maximum intensities migrate poleward. Accurate forecasts of hurricane intensity remain problematic. Here, using an ocean observing network to inform ocean and atmospheric model simulations, the authors show that consideration of ahead-of-eye cooling improves intensity forecasts.