The Crime Drop and the Security Hypothesis
The Crime Drop and the Security Hypothesis
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DOI：
10.1177/0022427810391539
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发表时间：
2011-05-01
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Tilley, Nick
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Farrell, Graham;Tseloni, Andromachi;Tilley, Nick
从1990年代初到中期的十年中，美国和大多数其他工业化国家的犯罪率都有大幅度下降。然而，对于政策的解释或教训，人们几乎没有达成一致。在这里，有人提出，安全的数量和质量的变化是犯罪下降的关键驱动力。从两个国家与车辆盗窃有关的证据可以得出结论，电子防盗装置和中央锁特别有效。有人认为，偷车案的减少可能导致包括暴力在内的其他犯罪的下降。从这个平台上，一个更广泛的安全假设，与日常活动和机会理论，概述。
Major crime drops were experienced in the United States and most other industrialized countries for a decade from the early to mid-1990s. Yet there is little agreement over explanation or lessons for policy. Here it is proposed that change in the quantity and quality of security was a key driver of the crime drop. From evidence relating to vehicle theft in two countries, it is concluded that electronic immobilizers and central locking were particularly effective. It is suggested that reduced car theft may have induced drops in other crime including violence. From this platform, a broader security hypothesis, linked to routine activity and opportunity theory, is outlined.