Sea surface temperatures of the mid-Piacenzian Warm Period: A comparison of PRISM3 and HadCM3
Sea surface temperatures of the mid-Piacenzian Warm Period: A comparison of PRISM3 and HadCM3
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DOI：
10.1016/j.palaeo.2011.03.016
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发表时间：
2011-08-15
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
Foley, Kevin M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dowsett, Harry J.;Haywood, Alan M.;Foley, Kevin M.
必须记录当前一代气候模型在模拟过去气候方面的表现，以便对它们预测未来条件的能力充满信心。我们首次对海洋-大气气候耦合模型实验的上新世海面温度（SST）估计值和基于代理数据的海表温度重建进行了全球性的深入比较。这使得能够识别气候模型和代理数据集都需要改进的领域。一般而言。模型产生的海温异常与现有数据形成的海温异常之间的拟合非常好。我们重点讨论数据模型异常超过 2 摄氏度的三个区域。 1) 在北太平洋高纬度地区，系统模型误差可能会导致异常过冷。此外，更深的上新世温跃层可能会导致加利福尼亚边缘的分歧。要么模型中的上升流太强，要么模拟的温跃层不够深。 2) 在北大西洋，该模型预测基于数据的变暖趋势中心会变冷，随着纬度从 + 1.5 摄氏度到 > + 6 摄氏度稳步增加。这种差异可能会出现，因为模拟的北大西洋洋流与现实相比过于地带性，而上新世西科迪勒拉山脉海拔的降低又强化了这一点。此外，该模型在高纬度地区使用现代水深测量可能导致该模型低估了温暖的地表水向北渗透到北极的情况。 3) 最后，尽管数据和模型在南大洋的大部分地区表现出良好的总体一致性，但由于模型中使用的现代陆海掩模，一些位置显示出偏移。额外的考虑因素可以解释许多适度的数据模型异常，例如校准气候学之间的差异。季节周期的过度简化以及海温代理之间的差异（即季节性和水深）。来自数据稀疏和区域重要区域的新海表温度估计将大大增强我们判断模型性能的能力。由爱思唯尔出版。
It is essential to document how well the current generation of climate models performs in simulating past climates to have confidence in their ability to project future conditions. We present the first global, in-depth comparison of Pliocene sea surface temperature (SST) estimates from a coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model experiment and a SST reconstruction based on proxy data. This enables the identification of areas in which both the climate model and the proxy dataset require improvement.In general. the fit between model-produced SST anomalies and those formed from the available data is very good. We focus our discussion on three regions where the data-model anomaly exceeds 2 degrees C. 1) In the high latitude North Pacific, a systematic model error may result in anomalies that are too cold. Also, the deeper Pliocene thermocline may cause disagreement along the California margin; either the upwelling in the model is too strong or the modeled thermocline is not deep enough. 2) In the North Atlantic, the model predicts cooling in the center of a data-based warming trend that steadily increases with latitude from + 1.5 degrees C to >+6 degrees C. The discrepancy may arise because the modeled North Atlantic Current is too zonal compared to reality, which is reinforced by the lowering of the altitude of the Pliocene Western Cordillera Mountains. In addition, the model's use of modern bathymetry in the higher latitudes may have led the model to underestimate the northward penetration of warmer surface water into the Arctic. 3) Finally, though the data and model show good general agreement across most of the Southern Ocean, a few locations show offsets due to the modern land-sea mask used in the model.Additional considerations could account for many of the modest data-model anomalies, such as differences between calibration climatologies. the oversimplification of the seasonal cycle, and differences between SST proxies (i.e. seasonality and water depth). New SST estimates from data-sparse and regionally important areas will greatly enhance our ability to judge model performance. Published by Elsevier By.