Dependence of trends in and sensitivity of drought over China (1961-2013) on potential evaporation model
Dependence of trends in and sensitivity of drought over China (1961-2013) on potential evaporation model
复制标题
中国干旱趋势和敏感性（1961-2013）对潜在蒸发模型的依赖性
DOI：
10.1002/2015gl067473
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发表时间：
2016
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Liu Changming
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zhang Jie;Sun Fubao;Xu Jijun;Chen Yaning;Sang Yan Fang;Liu Changming
帕尔默干旱严重程度指数（PDSI）在评估全球变暖引起的干旱方面可能会导致有争议的结果。在这里，我们使用PDSI评估了中国干旱的近期变化（1961-2013），其中有两种不同的估计，即，Thornthwaite（PDSI_th）和Penman-Monteith（PDSI_pm）方法。我们发现PDSI_th的干旱变得更加严重，但PDSI_pmeate的干旱略有减轻。为了量化和解释PDSI_th和PDSI_pm的不同响应，我们设计了数值试验，发现PDSI_th对变暖的响应趋势比PDSI_pm高3.4倍，后者进一步被风速和太阳辐射的减少所补偿，导致PDSI_pm略有湿润。有趣的是，我们发现，流域间差异的PDSI_thandPDSI_pm响应单独变暖往往是更大的温暖的盆地，指数依赖于平均温度。
The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) can lead to controversial results in assessing droughts responding to global warming. Here we assess recent changes in the droughts over China (1961–2013) using the PDSI with two different estimates, i.e., the Thornthwaite (PDSI_th) and Penman‐Monteith (PDSI_pm) approaches. We found that droughts have become more severe in thePDSI_thbut slightly lessened in thePDSI_pmestimate. To quantify and interpret the different responses in thePDSI_thandPDSI_pm, we designed numerical experiments and found that drying trend of thePDSI_thresponding to the warming alone is 3.4 times higher than that of thePDSI_pm, and the latter was further compensated by decreases in wind speed and solar radiation causing the slightly wetting in thePDSI_pm. Interestingly, we found that interbasin difference in thePDSI_thandPDSI_pmresponses to the warming alone tends to be larger in warmer basins, exponentially depending on mean temperature.