Development and Evaluation of a Hydrometeorological Forecasting System Using the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) Model
Development and Evaluation of a Hydrometeorological Forecasting System Using the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) Model
复制标题
使用海洋-大气-波浪-沉积物耦合传输 (COAWST) 模型开发和评估水文气象预报系统
DOI：
10.1155/2021/6658722
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发表时间：
2021-01
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Li Zhiqian
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zou Jing;Zhan Chesheng;Song Haiqing;Hu Tong;Qiu Zhijin;Wang Bo;Li Zhiqian
本研究以海洋-大气-波浪-泥沙耦合模式（COAWST）为基础，开发了一个水文气象预报试验系统。该系统每天下载全球实时海洋、大气和波浪强迫数据，生成区域预报。选取了包括海南岛、雷州半岛及其周边海域在内的华南沿海地区作为研究区域。在该地区进行了一系列72小时预报模拟，持续时间为2019年7月27日至8月31日。整个8月的预报被选择用于与台站观测进行评估，沿着还有两组再分析数据，ERA 5和CLDAS。评估结果表明，COAWST模式具有很高的潜力，为日常预报业务。24小时预报，提前时间为24小时，具有很高的准确性，而48小时和72小时预报在性能方面没有很大差异。预报与再分析资料的偏差分布在陆地和海洋上有明显的差异，陆地网格的降水预报偏多，温度预报偏低。在大多数情况下，在经济手段和其他统计措施方面，预测更接近ERA 5。与ERA 5相比，预报结果加大了海陆温差，加强了夏季风，使更多的水汽输送到陆地。由此，在整个区域内也检测到较低的地面气压、较高的空气湿度、较强的南风等预测偏差，但值较低。
In this study, an experimental hydrometeorological forecasting system was developed based on the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) model. The system downloads global real-time ocean, atmosphere, and wave forcing data, producing regional forecasts every day. A coastal area in South China, encompassing Hainan Island, Leizhou Peninsula, and surrounding sea areas, was chosen as the study domain. A series of 72-hour forecasting simulations were conducted in the area, lasting from July 27 to August 31, 2019. The forecasts throughout August were chosen for evaluation with station observations, along with two sets of reanalysis data, ERA5 and CLDAS. The evaluation results revealed that the COAWST model had high potential for routine forecasting operations. The 24 h forecasts, with a lead time of 24 hours, had high accuracy, while the 48 h and 72 h forecasts did not differ greatly in terms of performance. The distributions of bias between forecast and reanalysis data showed obvious differences between land and sea, with more forecasted precipitation and lower temperatures in land grids than in sea grids. In most cases, the forecasts were closer to ERA5 in terms of means and other statistical measures. The forecasts enlarged the land-sea differences of temperature when compared with ERA5 and strengthened summer monsoon with more moisture transported to land areas. Resulting from that, a forecasted bias of lower surface pressure, higher air humidity, stronger south wind, and so forth was also detected over the domain but at low values.
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影响因子：
3.1
作者：
T. Tsuda;T. Inoue;S. Kato;S. Fukao;D. Fritts;T. Vanzandt
通讯作者：
T. Tsuda;T. Inoue;S. Kato;S. Fukao;D. Fritts;T. Vanzandt
影响因子：
2.2
作者：
Hai-Tien Lee;R. Ellingson
通讯作者：
Hai-Tien Lee;R. Ellingson
影响因子：
4.4
作者：
Jia, Binghao;Xie, Zhenghui;Chen, Feng
通讯作者：
Chen, Feng
影响因子：
2.3
作者：
J. Zambon;R. He;J. Warner
通讯作者：
J. Zambon;R. He;J. Warner
影响因子：
3.2
作者：
Lea, D. J.;Mirouze, I.;Thurlow, M.
通讯作者：
Thurlow, M.