Long lead statistical forecasts of area burned in western U.S. wildfires by ecosystem province
Long lead statistical forecasts of area burned in western U.S. wildfires by ecosystem province
复制标题
按生态系统省对美国西部野火烧毁面积的长期统计预测
DOI：
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发表时间：
2002
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
T. Barnett
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Westerling;A. Gershunov;D. Cayan;T. Barnett
统计预测方法利用美国气候部门每月帕尔默干旱严重指数（PDSI）的大尺度模式，在广泛的地区和几个季节中预测生态系统省提前一个季节在美国西部野火中烧毁的面积。基于典型相关的预测模型表明，几种特征模式决定了预测的野火季节燃烧面积。在大多数海拔较高的森林省份，火灾季节前的异常土壤湿度（由PDSI推断）与烧毁面积之间存在强烈的负相关，而在沙漠、灌木和草地省份，火灾季节前一年的异常土壤湿度与烧毁面积之间存在强烈的正相关。在美国西部的大部分地区，高于或低于正常水平的火灾季节预测的成功率为57%或更高，而随机猜测的成功率为33%，而且与预测相反的火灾季节出现意外的可能性很低。
A statistical forecast methodology exploits large-scale patterns in monthly U.S. Climatological Division Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) values over a wide region and several seasons to predict area burned in western U.S. wildfires by ecosystem province a season in advance. The forecast model, which is based on canonical correlations, indicates that a few characteristic patterns determine predicted wildfire season area burned. Strong negative associations between anomalous soil moisture (inferred from PDSI) immediately prior to the fire season and area burned dominate in most higher elevation forested provinces, while strong positive associations between anomalous soil moisture a year prior to the fire season and area burned dominate in desert and shrub and grassland provinces. In much of the western U.S., above- and below-normal fire season forecasts were successful 57% of the time or better, as compared with a 33% skill for a random guess, and with a low probability of being surprised by a fire season at the opposite extreme of that forecast.