Modelling the recent common ancestry of all living humans
Modelling the recent common ancestry of all living humans
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DOI：
10.1038/nature02842
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发表时间：
2004-09-30
期刊：
影响因子：
64.8
通讯作者：
Chang, JT
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Rohde, DLT;Olson, S;Chang, JT
如果所有现存人类的共同祖先被定义为所有现代人的系谱祖先，那么随机交配群体的最近共同祖先（MRCA）将生活在最近的过去（1-3）。然而，随机交配模型忽略了种群结构的基本方面，例如个体从同一社会群体中选择配偶的倾向，以及地理上分离的群体的相对隔离。在这里，我们表明，最近的共同祖先也出现了两个模型，将大量的人口子结构。一个模型，设计简单和理论洞察力，通过概率分析产生明确的数学结果。一个更详细的第二个模型，旨在捕捉历史人口动态在一个更现实的方式，通过蒙特卡罗模拟计算分析。这些分析表明，在最近的过去，所有活着的人类的家谱都以惊人的方式重叠。特别是，所有现代人类的MRCA都生活在几千年前的这些模型中。此外，在比MRCA早几千年的所有个体中，每个现代人都有完全相同的家谱祖先。
If a common ancestor of all living humans is defined as an individual who is a genealogical ancestor of all present-day people, the most recent common ancestor (MRCA) for a randomly mating population would have lived in the very recent past(1-3). However, the random mating model ignores essential aspects of population substructure, such as the tendency of individuals to choose mates from the same social group, and the relative isolation of geographically separated groups. Here we show that recent common ancestors also emerge from two models incorporating substantial population substructure. One model, designed for simplicity and theoretical insight, yields explicit mathematical results through a probabilistic analysis. A more elaborate second model, designed to capture historical population dynamics in a more realistic way, is analysed computationally through Monte Carlo simulations. These analyses suggest that the genealogies of all living humans overlap in remarkable ways in the recent past. In particular, the MRCA of all present-day humans lived just a few thousand years ago in these models. Moreover, among all individuals living more than just a few thousand years earlier than the MRCA, each present-day human has exactly the same set of genealogical ancestors.