Ensemble Modeling of Radiation Belt Electron Acceleration by Chorus Waves: Dependence on Key Input Parameters
Ensemble Modeling of Radiation Belt Electron Acceleration by Chorus Waves: Dependence on Key Input Parameters
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DOI：
10.1029/2022sw003234
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发表时间：
2023-01
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影响因子：
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通讯作者：
M. Hua;J. Bortnik;A. Kellerman;E. Camporeale;Q. Ma
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文献类型：
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作者：
M. Hua;J. Bortnik;A. Kellerman;E. Camporeale;Q. Ma
在2012年10月9日的风暴期间，我们使用准线性方法对辐射带电子加速进行了系综模拟，其中合唱波在L = 5.2处占主导地位。基于叠加历元分析的11个类似的风暴时，多MeV的电子通量增强和合唱波活动的观测货车艾伦探针，我们使用采样的归一化输入分布的四个关键输入，以估计它们的相对扰动。在每个输入参数中使用11个点，包括合唱波振幅Bw、合唱波峰值频率fm、背景磁场B 0和电子密度Ne，我们运行了114次模拟，以量化输入参数中的不确定性对合唱产生的模拟电子加速的影响。通过比较模拟观测，我们的合奏模拟显示，在所有四个输入参数的不准确性显着影响模拟的电子加速，最大的模拟误差归因于Bw，Ne和FM的不确定性。模拟可以偏离观测四个数量级，而具有最大概率密度（输入中的最小扰动）的成员提供了输出通量的合理估计，其对数精度误差集中在0.5 - 2.0之间。量化我们研究中的不确定性是验证我们的辐射带电子模型和改进准确的电子通量预测的先决条件。
We perform ensemble simulations of radiation belt electron acceleration using the quasi‐linear approach during the storm on 9 October 2012, where chorus waves dominated electron acceleration at L = 5.2. Based on a superposed epoch analysis of 11 similar storms when both multi‐MeV electron flux enhancements and chorus wave activities were observed by Van Allen Probes, we use percentiles to sample the normalized input distributions for the four key inputs to estimate their relative perturbations. Using 11 points in each input parameter including chorus wave amplitude Bw, chorus wave peak frequency fm, background magnetic field B0, and electron density Ne, we ran 114 simulations to quantify the impact of uncertainties in the input parameters on the resulting simulated electron acceleration by chorus. By comparing the simulations to observations, our ensemble simulations reveal that inaccuracies in all four input parameters significantly affect the simulated electron acceleration, with the largest simulation errors attributed to the uncertainties in Bw, Ne, and fm. The simulation can deviate from the observations by four orders of magnitude, while members with largest probability density (smallest perturbations in the input) provide reasonable estimations of output fluxes with log accuracy errors concentrated between ∼−2.0 and 0.5. Quantifying the uncertainties in our study is a prerequisite for the validation of our radiation belt electron model and improvements of accurate electron flux predictions.