Uncertainties in Long-Term Twenty-First Century Process-Based Coastal Sea-Level Projections
Uncertainties in Long-Term Twenty-First Century Process-Based Coastal Sea-Level Projections
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DOI：
10.1007/s10712-019-09575-3
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发表时间：
2019-10
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
R. V. D. Wal;Xuebin Zhang;S. Minobe;S. Jevrejeva;Riccardo Riva;Christopher M. Little;Kristin Richter;Matthew D. Palmer
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. V. D. Wal;Xuebin Zhang;S. Minobe;S. Jevrejeva;Riccardo Riva;Christopher M. Little;Kristin Richter;Matthew D. Palmer
许多过程影响海岸附近的海平面。在本文中，我们讨论了沿海海平面预测的主要不确定性，从过程为基础的角度来看，在不同的空间和时间尺度，并提供了一个展望如何减少这些不确定性。百年全球海平面上升的不确定性主要是由冰盖的贡献。预计海平面变化的地理差异主要来自海洋反应的动力模式和其他地球物理过程。短持续极端海平面事件的不确定性主要受近岸过程、风暴和潮汐的控制。
Many processes affect sea level near the coast. In this paper, we discuss the major uncertainties in coastal sea-level projections from a process-based perspective, at different spatial and temporal scales, and provide an outlook on how these uncertainties may be reduced. Uncertainty in centennial global sea-level rise is dominated by the ice sheet contributions. Geographical variations in projected sea-level change arise mainly from dynamical patterns in the ocean response and other geophysical processes. Finally, the uncertainties in the short-duration extreme sea-level events are controlled by near coastal processes, storms and tides.