ASEAN Economic Community: A General Equilibrium Analysis*: THE ASEAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY
ASEAN Economic Community: A General Equilibrium Analysis*: THE ASEAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY
复制标题
东盟经济共同体：一般均衡分析*：东盟经济共同体
DOI：
10.1111/j.1467-8381.2012.02079.x
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发表时间：
2012
影响因子：
1.3
通讯作者：
F. Zhai
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
P. Petri;M. Plummer;F. Zhai
东盟经济共同体(AEC)是发展中国家尝试的最大一体化努力；如果实现，它将创建一个商品、服务、外国直接投资和熟练劳动力自由流动的单一市场，以及涵盖近6亿人的资本更自由流动。这项研究首次尝试评估AEC的全部收益，发现该项目可以产生与欧洲单一市场类似的收益，相当于该地区收入的5.3%。如果如预期的那样，区域一体化还导致与关键外部伙伴达成新的自由贸易协定，好处可能会翻一番。整个地区将分享这些收益。这将对其他一些国家产生温和的贸易和投资转移效应，但世界也将受益。然而，东盟经济共同体带来了政治挑战：本研究发现，该项目将意味着几个东盟经济体进行重大结构调整。
The ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) is the largest integration effort attempted in the developing world; if realized, it will create a single market with the free movement of goods, services, foreign direct investment and skilled labor, and freer movement of capital encompassing nearly 600 million people. This study, a first attempt to evaluate the full benefits of the AEC, finds that the project could produce gains similar to those resulting from the European Single Market, amounting to 5.3 percent of the region's income. The benefits could be doubled if, as expected, regional integration also leads to new free trade agreements with key external partners. The whole region will share in these gains. There will be mild trade and investment diversion effects for some other countries, but the world will benefit too. Nevertheless, the AEC poses political challenges: the present study finds that the project will imply significant structural adjustments in several ASEAN economies.