Control of COVID-19 outbreak using an extended SEIR model
Control of COVID-19 outbreak using an extended SEIR model
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DOI：
10.1142/s0218202521500512
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发表时间：
2021-11-01
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Piccoli, Benedetto
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
McQuade, Sean T.;Weightman, Ryan;Piccoli, Benedetto
新冠肺炎的爆发导致了全球的高死亡人数。本文的目的是展示一个简单的SEIR模型如何在2020年3月初对新泽西州进行快速预测，并基于中国和意大利的数据呼吁采取行动。然后提出了一个更精细的模型，该模型考虑了社会距离、测试、接触者追踪和隔离，以确定遏制措施，将大流行的经济成本降至最低。后者是在考虑到所有相关费用后得出的，包括因封锁和隔离而减少的经济活动以及住院和死亡费用。建议的模型使人们能够找到实施各种非药物干预措施的组合的最佳策略，并研究不同的情景和可能的初始条件。
The outbreak of COVID-19 resulted in high death tolls all over the world. The aim of this paper is to show how a simple SEIR model was used to make quick predictions for New Jersey in early March 2020 and call for action based on data from China and Italy. A more refined model, which accounts for social distancing, testing, contact tracing and quarantining, is then proposed to identify containment measures to minimize the economic cost of the pandemic. The latter is obtained taking into account all the involved costs including reduced economic activities due to lockdown and quarantining as well as the cost for hospitalization and deaths. The proposed model allows one to find optimal strategies as combinations of implementing various non-pharmaceutical interventions and study different scenarios and likely initial conditions.