Future Caribbean Climates in a World of Rising Temperatures: The 1.5 vs 2.0 Dilemma
Future Caribbean Climates in a World of Rising Temperatures: The 1.5 vs 2.0 Dilemma
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气温上升的世界中未来的加勒比气候：1.5 与 2.0 的困境
DOI：
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
J. Charlery
中科院分区：
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作者：
Michael A. P. Taylor;Leonardo A. Clarke;A. Centella;Arnoldo Bezanilla;Tannecia S. Stephenson;Jhordanne J. Jones;Jayaka Campbell;Alejandro Vichot;J. Charlery
利用耦合模式相互比较项目（CMIP 5）第5阶段的10个成员的集合，分析了当全球平均地表气温比工业化前（1861-1900年）高1.5°、2.0°和2.5°C时加勒比海地区未来的气候。RCP4.5的全球变暖目标分别在2030年代、2050年代和2070年代实现。加勒比地区平均地表气温上升幅度小于地球仪，尽管该区域有些地方的气温始终高于全球升温目标。与目前相比（使用1971-2000年基线），加勒比地区在1.5°C的目标下变暖0.5° C至1.5°C，潮湿5%-10%，但加勒比东北部和东南部除外，这两个地区比较干燥，并且每年温暖期增加超过100天。在2.0°C的目标下，有0.2°-1.0 ° C的额外变暖，温暖期的进一步延长长达70天，转向主要干燥的地区（比现在少5%-15%），以及更大的气候变化。
AbstractA 10-member ensemble from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) is used to analyze the Caribbean’s future climate when mean global surface air temperatures are 1.5°, 2.0°, and 2.5°C above preindustrial (1861–1900) values. The global warming targets are attained by the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s respectively for RCP4.5. The Caribbean on average exhibits smaller mean surface air temperature increases than the globe, although there are parts of the region that are always warmer than the global warming targets. In comparison to the present (using a 1971–2000 baseline), the Caribbean domain is 0.5° to 1.5°C warmer at the 1.5°C target, 5%–10% wetter except for the northeast and southeast Caribbean, which are drier, and experiences increases in annual warm spells of more than 100 days. At the 2.0°C target, there is additional warming by 0.2°–1.0°C, a further extension of warm spells by up to 70 days, a shift to a predominantly drier region (5%–15% less than present day), and a greater...