Estimating geothermal resources in Bohai Bay Basin, eastern China, using Monte Carlo simulation
Estimating geothermal resources in Bohai Bay Basin, eastern China, using Monte Carlo simulation
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DOI：
10.1007/s12665-019-8352-7
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发表时间：
2019-06
影响因子：
2.8
通讯作者：
Zhuting Wang;G. Jiang;Chao Zhang;Xianchun Tang;Shengbiao Hu
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Zhuting Wang;G. Jiang;Chao Zhang;Xianchun Tang;Shengbiao Hu
地热能作为一种清洁的可再生能源正在被广泛开发，准确评估潜在资源可以帮助我们合理规划和利用。体积法因其简单、方便而广泛应用于地热资源评价。然而，该方法没有考虑所涉及的输入参数的不确定性，而是为每个储层分配一系列特定的参数值。这里，采用蒙特卡罗模拟方法来减少这些不确定性，同时应用体积法来估算中国东部渤海湾盆地的地热资源。该盆地包含两种主要类型的热储层：砂岩和碳酸盐岩。在对这些储层应用蒙特卡罗分析时，使用了输入参数的三角均匀分布模型，并进行了 1000-5000 次迭代模拟。结果表明，明化镇和馆陶砂岩储层的容量分别为（1.182–2.283）×1021J（最可能为1.74×1021J）和（1.299–2.546）×1021J（最可能为1.937×1021J），容量为（0.608–1.254）×碳酸盐岩储集层为1021J（最有可能为8.450×1020J），最后，整个渤海湾盆地的范围值为（3.466~5.553）×1021J（最有可能为4.400×1021J）。
Geothermal energy is being widely exploited as a clean and renewable energy resource, and accurate assessments of potential resources can help us make reasonable planning and utilization of them. The volumetric method has been widely used in assessing geothermal resources owing to its simplicity and convenience. However, this method does not take into account the uncertainties of the input parameters involved, instead assigning a series of specific parameter values for each reservoir. Here, a Monte Carlo simulation approach was used to reduce these uncertainties while applying the volumetric method to estimate the geothermal resources of Bohai Bay Basin in eastern China. The basin contains two main types of thermal reservoirs: sandstone and carbonate. In applying Monte Carlo analysis to these reservoirs, the triangular and uniform distribution models for input parameters were used, and simulations were run with 1000–5000 iterations. Results indicate capacities of (1.182–2.283) × 1021J (most likely 1.74 × 1021J) and (1.299–2.546) × 1021J (most likely 1.937 × 1021J) for the Minghuazhen and Guantao sandstone reservoirs, respectively, and a capacity of (0.608–1.254) × 1021J (most likely 8.450 × 1020J) for the carbonate reservoir, finally, a range value (3.466–5.553) × 1021J (most likely 4.400× 1021J) for the whole Bohai Bay Basin.