Resolution matters when modeling climate change in headwaters of the Colorado River
Resolution matters when modeling climate change in headwaters of the Colorado River
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DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/aba77f
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发表时间：
2020-10-01
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Maxwell, Reed M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Foster, Lauren M.;Williams, Kenneth H.;Maxwell, Reed M.
西南部城市的持续发展依赖于落基山脉源头的可靠水输出，该源头提供了科罗拉多河流域（CRB）85%的流量。尽管高山系统对气温变暖更敏感，但在目前使用的区域尺度模型中，高山系统被简化，以规划未来的供水。我们使用了一个集成的水文模型，耦合地下水和地表水与雪和植被过程，检查地形简化的效果，作为一个代表性的CRB水源盆地的网格粗化。高分辨率（100米）模拟预测到2050年，河源径流损失为16%，而粗分辨率（1公里）模拟预测只有12%，这表明区域尺度模型（粗于1公里）可能高估了未来的科罗拉多河流域供水。
The continued growth of Southwestern cities depends on reliable water export from Rocky Mountain headwaters, which provide similar to 85% of Colorado River Basin (CRB) streamflow. Despite being more sensitive to warming temperatures, alpine systems are simplified in the regional-scale models currently in use to plan for future water supply. We used an integrated hydrologic model that couples groundwater and surface water with snow and vegetation processes to examine the effect of topographic simplifications as a result of grid coarsening in a representative CRB headwater basin. High-resolution (100 m) simulations predicted headwater streamflow losses of 16% by 2050 while coarse-resolution (1 km) simulations predict only 12%, suggesting that regional-scale models (coarser than 1 km) likely overestimate future Colorado River Basin water supplies.