Future climate change and its impacts over small island states
Future climate change and its impacts over small island states
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DOI：
10.3354/cr019179
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发表时间：
2002-01-16
期刊：
影响因子：
1.1
通讯作者：
Takahashi, K
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lal, M;Harasawa, H;Takahashi, K
This paper examines the response of the climate of Small Island States (SIS) to transient increases in anthropogenic radiative forcing due to increases in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and/or sulfate aerosols using the data generated in a set of numerical experiments performed with a range of coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models. Five of the 7 models considered in our validation exercise are found to have fair skill as regards their ability to simulate the broad features of present-day observed surface climatological features over the SIS in the Indian Ocean, the Mediterranean Sea, the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean. The transient experiments with these models, which include the time-varying future anthropogenic radiative forcings, have been used here to develop regional projections of future climate change. An area-averaged annual mean warming of ca 2degreesC or higher for the 2050s and ca 3degreesC or higher for the 2080s are projected for the SIS as a consequence of increases in atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases. In general, seasonal variations of the projected surface warming over the SIS are minimal. No significant change in diurnal temperature range is likely with an increase in surface temperatures. An increase in mean temperature would be accompanied by an increase in the frequency of extremely high temperatures. The aerosol forcing will only marginally reduce the surface warming. The models simulate only a marginal change (
