A gradient from stable to cyclic populations of Clethrionomys rufocanus in Hokkaido, Japan
A gradient from stable to cyclic populations of Clethrionomys rufocanus in Hokkaido, Japan
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日本北海道红毛密纹鼠从稳定种群到循环种群的梯度
DOI：
10.1098/rspb.1996.0164
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发表时间：
1996
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
T. Saitoh
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
N. Stenseth;O. Bjørnstad;T. Saitoh
对日本北方北海道地区90个灰边田鼠种群31年的数量动态进行了分析。研究人群中既有非周期性波动，也有多年周期性波动。期限为2至5年不等。动态出现近似线性的对数尺度上，和一个时间滞后的对数线性随机差分模型被发现重新创建的时间序列的周期图。这些模型的确定性（对数线性）部分决定了周期性，而随机性维持了周期。北海道田鼠种群的动态变化，从西海岸向东，并对研究区域的内部倾斜。这个梯度对应于表面上的纬度梯度中看到的microtine种群在Fennoscandia。然而，仔细观察，这些梯度有很大的不同：北海道梯度是由延迟密度依赖的渐变引起的。统计延迟密度的依赖性是更负向东部和内部。
A total of 31 years of abundance data from 90 populations of the grey-sided vole (Clethrionomys rufocanus) in northern Hokkaido (Japan) were analysed with respect to population dynamic characteristics. Both non-periodic and multi-annually periodic fluctuations occur among the studied populations. The length of the period varies from 2 to 5 years. The dynamics appear approximately linear on a logarithmic scale, and a log-linear stochastic difference model with one time-lag is found to recreate the periodograms of the time series. The deterministic (log-linear) component of these models determines the periodicity while stochasticity sustains the cycles. The dynamics of the Hokkaidian vole populations are found to vary clinally from the western coast eastwards and towards the interior of the study area. This gradient corresponds superficially to the latitudinal gradient seen in microtine populations in Fennoscandia. However, under close scrutiny, these gradients differ greatly: the Hokkaidian gradient is caused by a cline in delayed density dependence. Statistical delayed density dependence is more negative towards the east and the interior.