Topography and human pressure in mountain ranges alter expected species responses to climate change
Topography and human pressure in mountain ranges alter expected species responses to climate change
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DOI：
10.1038/s41467-020-15881-x
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发表时间：
2020-04-24
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Merenlender, Adina M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Elsen, Paul R.;Monahan, William B.;Merenlender, Adina M.
气候变化正在导致广泛的海拔变化，人们认为这会增加山区物种灭绝的风险。我们将数字高程模型与人类压力指标相结合，以检查全球所有主要山脉中经历海拔变化的物种可用的完整土地面积的变化（n = 1010）。近60%的山区面临着巨大的人类压力，尤其是低海拔地区和山麓地区。因此，上坡范围的变化通常会导致海拔较低的模拟物种扩展到人类压力较低的地区，并且由于地形复杂，会遇到相对于其起始位置更完整的陆地区域。随着土地利用限制的减少和地形限制的增加，这种收益在高海拔地区往往会减弱。整合地形模式和人类压力对于气候变化下准确的物种脆弱性评估至关重要，因为保护、连接和恢复山地景观的优先事项可能会被误导。人们通常认为，随着气候变暖，许多物种将向山区迁移。然而，作者在这里表明，随着许多物种迁移到更高的海拔，它们将进入人类足迹较低但可能更受地形限制的地区。
Climate change is leading to widespread elevational shifts thought to increase species extinction risk in mountains. We integrate digital elevation models with a metric of human pressure to examine changes in the amount of intact land area available for species undergoing elevational range shifts in all major mountain ranges globally (n = 1010). Nearly 60% of mountainous area is under intense human pressure, predominantly at low elevations and mountain bases. Consequently, upslope range shifts generally resulted in modeled species at lower elevations expanding into areas of lower human pressure and, due to complex topography, encountering more intact land area relative to their starting position. Such gains were often attenuated at high elevations as land-use constraints diminished and topographic constraints increased. Integrating patterns of topography and human pressure is essential for accurate species vulnerability assessments under climate change, as priorities for protecting, connecting, and restoring mountain landscapes may otherwise be misguided. It is often assumed that many species will move upslope in mountainous regions as the climate warms. However, the authors show here that as many species move to higher elevations they will enter areas of lower human footprint but potentially more constraining topography.