Modeling Micro-Level Crime Location Choice: Application of the Discrete Choice Framework to Crime at Places
Modeling Micro-Level Crime Location Choice: Application of the Discrete Choice Framework to Crime at Places
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DOI：
10.1007/s10940-009-9086-6
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发表时间：
2010-03-01
影响因子：
3.6
通讯作者：
Bernasco, Wim
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bernasco, Wim
离散选择最近出现作为一个新的框架来分析犯罪地点的决定，但迄今为止只被用来研究大面积的人口普查区之间的选择。由于罪犯也作出目标选择的决定，在更低的空间聚集水平，本研究分析了罪犯的位置选择在详细的空间分辨率：分析的平均单位是一个区域，只有18个住宅单位和40个居民。本文回顾了离散选择和空间选择的文献，证明了使用地理单元这么小，并认为，因为小的空间单元强烈依赖于他们的环境，模型需要考虑到空间的相互依赖性。为了说明这些点，盗窃地点选择数据从荷兰进行了分析与离散选择模型，包括空间竞争模型。
Discrete choice recently emerged as a new framework for analyzing criminal location decisions, but has thus far only been used to study the choice amongst large areas like census tracts. Because offenders also make target selection decisions at much lower levels of spatial aggregation, the present study analyzes the location choices of offenders at detailed spatial resolutions: the average unit of analysis is an area of only 18 residential units and 40 residents. This article reviews the discrete choice and spatial choice literature, justifies the use of geographic units this small, and argues that because small spatial units depend strongly on their environment, models are needed that take into account spatial interdependence. To illustrate these points, burglary location choice data from the Netherlands are analyzed with discrete choice models, including the spatial competition model.