Bayesian calibration of hydrocarbon reservoir models using an approximate reservoir simulator in the prior specification
Bayesian calibration of hydrocarbon reservoir models using an approximate reservoir simulator in the prior specification
复制标题
使用先前规范中的近似储层模拟器对碳氢化合物储层模型进行贝叶斯校准
DOI：
10.1177/1471082x0801000106
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发表时间：
2010
影响因子：
1
通讯作者：
H. Tjelmeland
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
O. Lødøen;H. Tjelmeland
我们考虑石油储层评价中“历史匹配”问题的预测和不确定性分析。未知的储层特性以精细的三维晶格表示。 “油藏模拟器”将油藏特性作为输入，并将生产特性作为输出。历史匹配问题是根据观测到的生产历史来推断储层性质。在感兴趣的晶格尺寸上运行储层模拟器需要大量计算机，这严重限制了可能的运行次数。我们在贝叶斯设置中制定问题，并根据统计文献中的建议，将油藏模拟器视为未知函数。为了获得该函数的真实先验分布，我们建议将模拟器的粗晶格（更快）版本与校正粗晶格引入的偏差的参数结合起来。我们通过马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗（MCMC）对所得后验进行模拟。我们构建一个人工参考储层，生成相应的流量观测值，并使用我们的程序来评估所得后验分布中的储层特性。收敛和混合是可以接受的。该案例研究展示了观察到的生产历史如何提供有关先前规范中包含的储层特性和偏差校正参数的信息。
We consider prediction and uncertainty analysis for the ‘history matching’ problem in petroleum reservoir evaluation. Unknown reservoir properties are represented on a fine three dimensional lattice. A ‘reservoir simulator’ takes the reservoir properties as input and gives production properties as output. The history matching problem is to infer the reservoir properties from the observed production history. To run the reservoir simulator on the lattice size of interest is computer intensive, and this severely limits the number of runs possible. We formulate the problem in a Bayesian setting and, following suggestions in the statistical literature, consider the reservoir simulator as an unknown function. To obtain a realistic prior distribution for this function, we propose to combine a coarse lattice (faster) version of the simulator with parameters correcting for bias introduced by the coarser lattice. We simulate from the resulting posterior by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). We construct an artificial reference reservoir, generate corresponding flow observations, and use our procedure to evaluate the reservoir properties in the resulting posterior distribution. Convergence and mixing are acceptable. The case study demonstrates how the observed production history provides information about both the reservoir properties and the bias correcting parameters included in the prior specification.