Productivity and U.S. Macroeconomic Performance: Interpreting the Past and Predicting the Future with a Two-Sector Real Business Cycle Model
Productivity and U.S. Macroeconomic Performance: Interpreting the Past and Predicting the Future with a Two-Sector Real Business Cycle Model
复制标题
生产力与美国宏观经济表现：用两部门真实经济周期模型解释过去并预测未来
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.917869
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发表时间：
2006
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Scott D. Schuh
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
P. Ireland;Scott D. Schuh
根据战后美国数据估算的两部门真实的商业周期模型确定了不同消费品和投资品生产技术对全要素生产率水平和增长率的冲击。这一模型将20世纪70年代生产率放缓的大部分原因归咎于消费品部门;它表明，投资品部门的放缓发生得较晚，持续性也要低得多。在这一更广泛的背景下，该模型将1990年代最近的强劲投资和投资特有的技术变革主要解释为追赶水平，这种情况不太可能持续或很快重复。
A two-sector real business cycle model, estimated with postwar U.S. data, identifies shocks to the levels and growth rates of total factor productivity in distinct consumption- and investment-goods-producing technologies. This model attributes most of the productivity slowdown of the 1970s to the consumption-goods sector; it suggests that a slowdown in the investment-goods sector occurred later and was much less persistent. Against this broader backdrop, the model interprets the more recent episode of robust investment and investment-specific technological change during the 1990s largely as a catch-up in levels that is unlikely to persist or be repeated anytime soon.
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.233139
发表时间：
2000-03
期刊：
IO: Productivity
影响因子：
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作者：
Stephen D. Oliner;Daniel E. Sichel
通讯作者：
Stephen D. Oliner;Daniel E. Sichel