Uncertain bidding zone configurations: The role of expectations for transmission and generation capacity expansion
Uncertain bidding zone configurations: The role of expectations for transmission and generation capacity expansion
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ejor.2020.01.024
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发表时间：
2020-08
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
M. Ambrosius;Jonas Egerer;Veronika Grimm;A. H. Weijde
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Ambrosius;Jonas Egerer;Veronika Grimm;A. H. Weijde
关于欧洲电力市场竞价区重新配置的政策讨论正在进行中，这给未来市场设计带来了不确定性。本文探讨了这种不确定性如何影响市场参与者及其对发电和输电容量的长期投资决策的问题。总结有关主动网络扩张规划的文献，我们提出了一个随机多层次模型，其中包含发电容量投资、网络扩张和市场运营，并考虑到未来招标区配置的不确定性。使用程式化的两节点网络，我们消除了不确定性对市场结果的不同影响。如果未来的竞价区配置有可能提供改善的区域价格信号，即使变化实际上并未发生，福利收益也会实现。因此，由于这些预期效应，投标区配置的实际变化带来的福利收益大大降低。此外，我们还显示了生产者和消费者之间以及不同发电技术之间的预期收益和风险方面的巨大分配效应。
Ongoing policy discussions on the reconfiguration of bidding zones in European electricity markets induce uncertainty about the future market design. This paper deals with the question of how this uncertainty affects market participants and their long-run investment decisions in generation and transmission capacity. Generalizing the literature on pro-active network expansion planning, we propose a stochastic multilevel model which incorporates generation capacity investment, network expansion, and market operation, taking into account uncertainty about the future bidding zone configuration. Using a stylized two-node network, we disentangle different effects that uncertainty has on market outcomes. If there is a possibility that future bidding zone configurations provide improved regional price signals, welfare gains materialize even if the change does not actually take place. As a consequence, welfare gains of an actual change of the bidding zone configuration are substantially lower due to those anticipatory effects. Additionally, we show substantial distributional effects in terms of both expected gains and risks, between producers and consumers and between different generation technologies.