Predicting Metapopulation Responses to Conservation in Human-Dominated Landscapes
Predicting Metapopulation Responses to Conservation in Human-Dominated Landscapes
复制标题
预测人类主导景观中种群对保护的反应
DOI：
10.3389/fevo.2016.00122
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发表时间：
2016
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
W. G. Shriver
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zachary S. Ladin;V. D’Amico;Jan M. Baetens;Roland R. Roth;W. G. Shriver
随着人类主导的景观以越来越快的速度扩张，城市化导致的栖息地丧失是人口减少的主要原因。了解不同保护策略的相对影响对于减缓城市景观中物种的数量下降非常重要。本文研究了美国大西洋中部城市化地区的森林繁殖新热带候鸟和森林繁殖鸣禽的保护伞种——木画眉。我们将40年的人口统计数据与当代的超种群模型模拟相结合，以预测不同保护方案下的种群反应。我们比较了过去30年（2014-2044年）的四种保护情景，分别是a)当前观测状态（Null）， B)用森林取代不透水面（Reforest）， C)减少褐头牛椋水寄生压力（牛鹂移除），D)同时重新造林和牛鹂移除。与零情景相比，再造林情景使年平均人口趋势增加了54%，清除牛仔鸟情景使年平均人口趋势增加了38%，再造林和清除牛仔鸟情景使年平均人口趋势增加了98%。与Null （λ = 0.88）模式相比，Reforest （λ = 0.94）和Remove cowbirds （λ = 0.92）模式下每个站点的平均年增长率（λ）更高。然而，只有结合植树造林和清除牛鹂的积极作用，画眉鸟的数量才停止下降（λ = 1.00）。我们的研究结果表明，在森林斑块周围独立地用森林栖息地取代不透水地表和去除牛鹂可能会减缓目前的负种群趋势。此外，结合重新造林和清除牛鹂的保护工作可能会使画眉和其他类似的森林繁殖鸣禽物种在美国大西洋中部典型的城市化破碎景观中受益。
Loss of habitat to urbanization is a primary cause of population declines as human-dominated landscapes expand at increasing rates. Understanding how the relative effects of different conservation strategies is important to slow population declines for species in urban landscapes. We studied the wood thrush Hylocichla mustelina, a declining forest-breeding Neotropical migratory species, and umbrella species for forest-breeding songbirds, within the urbanized mid-Atlantic United States. We integrated 40 years of demographic data with contemporary metapopulation model simulations of breeding wood thrushes to predict population responses to differing conservation scenarios. We compared four conservation scenarios over a 30-year time period (2014–2044) representing A) current observed state (Null), B) replacing impervious surface with forest (Reforest), C) reducing brown-headed cowbird Molothrus ater parasitism pressure (Cowbird removal), and D) simultaneous reforesting and cowbird removal. Compared to the Null scenario, the Reforest scenario increased mean annual population trends by 54 % , the Remove cowbirds scenario increased mean annual population trends by 38 %, and the scenario combining reforestation and cowbird removal increased mean annual population trends by 98 %. Mean annual growth rates (λ) per site were greater in the Reforest (λ = 0.94) and Remove cowbirds (λ = 0.92) compared to the Null (λ = 0.88) model scenarios. However, only by combining the positive effects of reforestation and cowbird removal did wood thrush populations stop declining (λ = 1.00). Our results suggest that independently replacing impervious surface with forest habitat around forest patches and removing cowbirds may slow current negative population trends. Furthermore, conservation efforts that combine reforestation and cowbird removal may potentially benefit populations of wood thrushes and other similarly forest-breeding songbird species within urbanized fragmented landscapes that typify the mid-Atlantic United States.
DOI：
10.1098/rspb.2015.2846
发表时间：
2016-01
期刊：
Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
影响因子：
--
作者：
Clark S. Rushing;T. Ryder;P. Marra
通讯作者：
Clark S. Rushing;T. Ryder;P. Marra
影响因子：
3.3
作者：
G. Wilson;B. Rannala
通讯作者：
G. Wilson;B. Rannala