The prediction on the 2015/16 El Niño event from the perspective of FIO-ESM
The prediction on the 2015/16 El Niño event from the perspective of FIO-ESM
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DOI：
10.1007/s13131-015-0787-4
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发表时间：
2015-12
影响因子：
1.4
通讯作者：
Zhenya Song;Qi Shu;Y. Bao;Xunqiang Yin;F. Qiao
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Zhenya Song;Qi Shu;Y. Bao;Xunqiang Yin;F. Qiao
最近的大气和海洋观测表明，热带太平洋处于厄尔尼诺现象。然而，尚不清楚今年的厄尔尼诺事件是否可以与1997/98年给整个世界带来巨大影响的非常强烈的厄尔尼诺事件相媲美。本文基于集合调整卡尔曼滤波同化方案(EAKF)和第一海洋-地球系统模式(FIO-ESM)，建立了同化系统，为预报提供了合理的初始条件。事后预报的结果表明，厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)的预报技巧与其他动力耦合模式相当。然后，从2015年11月1日开始使用FIO-ESM对2015/16年厄尔尼诺现象进行预测。集合结果表明，2015/16年的厄尔尼诺现象将继续很强。到2015年底，最强的强度很可能在2.0℃以上，集合平均强度为2.34℃，这表明2015/16年的厄尔尼诺事件将很强，但略低于1997/98年厄尔尼诺事件(2.40°C)，这是根据1992-2014年的气候计算得出的。预测结果还表明，2015/16年厄尔尼诺事件将在2016年初春(FMA)向ENSO中性水平过渡，然后可能在2016年夏季向拉尼娜(La Niña)过渡。
Recently atmospheric and oceanic observations indicate the tropical Pacific is at the El Niño condition. However, it’s not clear whether this El Niño event of this year is comparable to the very strong one of 1997/98 which brought huge influence on the whole world. In this study, based on the Ensemble Adjusted Kalman Filter (EAKF) assimilation scheme and First Institute of Oceanography-Earth System Model (FIO-ESM), the assimilation system is setup, which can provide reasonable initial conditions for prediction. And the hindcast results suggest the skill of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction is comparable to other dynamical coupled models. Then the prediction for 2015/16 El Niño by using FIO-ESM is started from 1 November 2015. The ensemble results indicate that the 2015/16 El Niño will continue to be strong. By the end of 2015, the strongest strength is very like more than 2.0°C and the ensemble mean strength is 2.34°C, which indicates 2015/16 El Niño event will be very strong but slightly less than that of 1997/98 El Niño event (2.40°C) calculated relative a climatology based on the years 1992–2014. The prediction results also suggest 2015/16 El Niño event will be a transition to ENSO-neutral level in the early spring (FMA) 2016, and then may transfer to La Niña in summer 2016.