Summer Drivers of Atmospheric Variability Affecting Ice Shelf Thinning in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica
Summer Drivers of Atmospheric Variability Affecting Ice Shelf Thinning in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica
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DOI：
10.1029/2018gl077092
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发表时间：
2018-05-16
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Hosking, J. Scott
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Deb, Pranab;Orr, Andrew;Hosking, J. Scott
利用卫星数据和使用天气研究和预报模型对阿蒙森海湾夏季气候进行 35 年的后报，了解区域和大规模大气变化如何通过上下融化影响南极洲西部这一区域的冰架变薄（与大陆架边缘异常西风引起的温水入侵有关）。厄尔尼诺现象与地表融化的增加有关，但对大陆架边缘的西风没有统计上的显着影响。阿蒙森海低压的位置和南环模（SAM）的极性对地表融化的影响可以忽略不计，尽管南环模的正值和阿蒙森海低压的东移会导致大陆架边缘出现异常西风。因此，预计未来厄尔尼诺现象的增加和 SAM 的正值可能会增加南极西部冰架崩解的风险。
Satellite data and a 35-year hindcast of the Amundsen Sea Embayment summer climate using the Weather Research and Forecasting model are used to understand how regional and large-scale atmospheric variability affects thinning of ice shelves in this sector of West Antarctica by melting from above and below (linked to intrusions of warm water caused by anomalous westerlies over the continental shelf edge). El Nino episodes are associated with an increase in surface melt but do not have a statistically significant impact on westerly winds over the continental shelf edge. The location of the Amundsen Sea Low and the polarity of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) have negligible impact on surface melting, although a positive SAM and eastward shift of the Amundsen Sea Low cause anomalous westerlies over the continental shelf edge. The projected future increase in El Nino episodes and positive SAM could therefore increase the risk of disintegration of West Antarctic ice shelves.