Statistical Evaluation of a Large-Scale Fishing Experiment Designed to Test for a Genetic Effect of Size-Selective Fishing on British Columbia Pink Salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha)
Statistical Evaluation of a Large-Scale Fishing Experiment Designed to Test for a Genetic Effect of Size-Selective Fishing on British Columbia Pink Salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha)
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DOI：
10.1139/f92-145
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发表时间：
1992-07
影响因子：
2.4
通讯作者：
M. Mcallister;R. Peterman
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Mcallister;R. Peterman
过去的工作表明，大小选择性收获的大型鱼类与身体大小的遗传力相结合，导致大（高达34%）的平均成年体重的不列颠哥伦比亚省粉红鲑鱼（Oncorhynchus gorbuscha）自1950年以来下降。在一份合作文件中（可以。J.菲什。水阿清四十九：1294-1304），我们评估了一个大规模捕捞实验的统计性能，该实验可以使管理人员验证这一假设，同时如果假设正确，则可以增加渔获量生物量。在本文中，我们评估的经济性能的实验，使用Monte Carlo模拟和决策分析在广泛的条件下，包括现有的生物不确定性。我们通过对两个关键生物学假设的先验概率来解释不确定性。我们计算了捕捞生物量的预期经济价值的实验和目前的非实验（现状）管理策略，使用20年的时间范围和10年的实验，四个…
Past work suggested that size-selective harvesting of large fish combined with heritability of body size has caused the large (up to 34%) decrease in mean adult weight of British Columbia pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) since 1950. In a companion paper (Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sei. 49: 1294–1304) we evaluated the statistical performance of a large-scale fishing experiment that could enable managers to test this hypothesis and at the same time increase catch biomass if that hypothesis were correct. In this paper we evaluate the economic performance of the proposed experiment using Monte Carlo simulation and decision analysis under a wide range of conditions that encompasses existing biological uncertainties. We accounted for uncertainties through prior probabilities placed on two key biological hypotheses. We computed the expected economic value of catch biomass for the experimental and current nonexperimental (status quo) management strategies using a 20-yr time horizon and a 10-yr experiment with four ...