On the Duration of Political Power in Africa
On the Duration of Political Power in Africa
复制标题
论非洲政治权力的持续时间
DOI：
10.1177/0010414008325575
复制
发表时间：
2009
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
L. Omgba
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
L. Omgba
人们经常强调，由于这种资源可以在政治激励中发挥作用，非洲产油国的政治不稳定。基于记录26个非洲国家(北非和撒哈拉以南非洲)国家元首任期的数据，这项研究揭示了一个令人惊讶的转变：非洲产油国所谓的不稳定似乎并未延伸到国家的行政部门。相反，利用生存分析，这项研究表明，石油租金与非洲领导人的任期之间存在正向联系。研究结果还显示，其他矿租并没有表现出同样的稳定作用。作者对这些结果的解释是基于对石油投资的可行性和石油的战略方面的分析。
It is often underlined that African oil-producing countries are politically unstable as a result of the role that this resource can play in political incentives. Based on data documenting the duration in office of heads of state of 26 African countries (North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa), this study reveals a surprising twist on the conventional wisdom: The purported instability of African oil-producing countries does not appear to extend to the executive branch of the state. Conversely, using survival analysis, this research suggests a positive link between oil rents and the duration in office of African leaders. Findings also reveal that other mineral rents do not exhibit the same stabilizing effect. The author's interpretation of these results is grounded in an analysis of the practicalities of oil investment and the strategic aspect of oil.