Decision-making Uncertainties in Emergency Warning System Organizations
Decision-making Uncertainties in Emergency Warning System Organizations
复制标题
紧急预警系统组织决策的不确定性
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
1987
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
D. Mileti
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
J. Sorensen;D. Mileti
系统地回顾了预警系统中组织决策的记录。提出了一个组织决策点和联系的描述模型。在这项工作中包括39个历史帐户的审查导致识别四大类，包括19个具体类别，在组织决策的不确定性与预警系统任务的组织。在这次审查中确定的主要决策不确定性类别是：（1）解释即将发生的事件的能力;（2）通信;（3）感知的警告影响;（4）外源性影响。主要问题是识别危险事件和在警报传播链中与其他人交流信息的实际能力。它的结论是，决策的不确定性，在各级和各阶段的预警系统，一直是一个主要的制约因素，预警的有效性，以及将是一个主要的对象，以减轻未来的预警系统准备活动。
The record of organizational decision-making in warning systems is systematically reviewed. A descriptive model of organizational decision-making points and linkages is proposed. The review of 39 historical accounts included in this work led to the identification of four broad classes, comprised of 19 specific categories, of uncertainties in organizational decision-making in organizations with warning system tasks. The major decision-making uncertainty classes identified in this review were: (1) ability to interpret the impending event; (2) communications; (3) perceived impacts of the warning; and (4) exogenous influences. Primary problems have been recognition of the hazardous event and physical ability to communicate information with others in the chain of warning dissemination. It is concluded that decision-making uncertainty, at all levels and stages of warning systems, has been a major constraint to warning effectiveness and would well be a prime object to be mitigated by future warning system preparedness activities.