Estimating HIV incidence using dates of both HIV and AIDS diagnoses.
Estimating HIV incidence using dates of both HIV and AIDS diagnoses.
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DOI：
10.1002/(sici)1097-0258(20000515)19:9
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发表时间：
2000-05
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Jisheng Cui;Niels G. Becker
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Jisheng Cui;Niels G. Becker
了解艾滋病毒发病率对于制定控制艾滋病毒/艾滋病流行病的合理战略十分重要。反投影是从艾滋病发病率数据重建艾滋病发病率曲线的方法之一。然而，由于在感染后的头几年内发展成艾滋病的风险很低，如果我们只使用艾滋病发病率数据，就不可能精确估计最近的艾滋病毒发病率。因此，最近人们不仅尝试使用艾滋病诊断的日期，还尝试使用他们第一次艾滋病毒检测呈阳性的日期。本文的目的是纳入反投影的额外信息提供的那些人谁测试艾滋病毒呈阳性，但尚未发展成艾滋病。这增加了大量其他个体的信息，并提供了大大提高反投影精度的希望。一个人的艾滋病毒检测阳性或艾滋病诊断的日期，以先到者为准，用于广义卷积方程的反投影。该方法说明了澳大利亚的艾滋病毒和艾滋病数据的应用程序。研究结果表明，在艾滋病毒和艾滋病的诊断日期都用于所有个人，近年来艾滋病毒发病率的估计精度得到了显着提高。
Knowledge of HIV incidence is important to formulate sensible strategies aimed at controlling the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Back-projection is one of the methods for reconstructing the HIV incidence curve from AIDS incidence data. However, because of the low risk of developing AIDS during the first few years after infection, precise estimates of HIV incidence for the recent past are unlikely if we use AIDS incidence data only. As a result there have been recent attempts to use, not only the date of AIDS diagnosis, but also to use the date of their first positive HIV test. The objective of this paper is to incorporate into back-projection the additional information provided by those individuals who have tested HIV positive but have not yet developed AIDS. This adds information on a very large number of other individuals, and provides the hope that the precision of back-projection is improved considerably. The date of a positive HIV test or an AIDS diagnosis of an individual, whichever comes first, is used in a generalized convolution equation for the purpose of back-projection. The method is illustrated by an application to Australian HIV and AIDS data. Study results show that dramatic improvement in precision is gained for estimates of HIV incidence in recent years when both HIV and AIDS diagnosis dates are used on all individuals.