Perturbation Growth at the Convective Scale
Perturbation Growth at the Convective Scale
复制标题
对流尺度的扰动增长
DOI：
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发表时间：
2009
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
G. Leoncini
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
G. Leoncini;P. Clark;G. Leoncini
对流事件带来的强降雨是英国夏季洪水和山洪爆发的主要原因。计算能力的提高意味着可操作的天气预报模型现在可以在允许对流的分辨率下运行。对流尺度可预测性差很可能是由于小尺度大气的显着非线性（微物理、辐射和流动动力学等过程强耦合）造成的。这使得集合预测系统特别有价值。然而，用于成熟的天气尺度系综生成的技术不一定适用于对流尺度。
Severe rainfall from convective events is the leading cause of floods and flash floods over the summer months in the UK. Improvements in computational power mean that operational weather prediction models can now be run at convection-permitting resolutions. Poor convective-scale predictability is most likely due to the significant nonlinearities of the atmosphere at small scales (processes such as microphysics, radiation and flow dynamics are strongly coupled). This makes ensemble prediction systems particularly valuable. However, the techniques applied for the well-established generation of synoptic-scale ensembles cannot necessarily be applied at the convective-scale.