The failed-levee effect: Do societies learn from flood disasters?
The failed-levee effect: Do societies learn from flood disasters?
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DOI：
10.1007/s11069-014-1496-6
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发表时间：
2015-03-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Di Baldassarre, G.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Collenteur, R. A.;de Moel, H.;Di Baldassarre, G.
人类社会已经学会了用几种方法来应对洪水风险，最突出的方法是工程解决方案和适应性措施。然而，从更可持续的角度来看，可以认为社会应该避免或至少尽量减少在洪泛区的城市发展。虽然许多科学家研究了人类活动对洪水风险的影响，但只有少数研究调查了相反的关系，即过去洪水事件对洪泛平原发展的影响。在本研究中，我们初步尝试了解洪水灾害的发生对漫滩地区人口动态空间分布的影响。研究人员使用了两种不同的方法来揭示这种关系，一种是对美国的大规模研究，另一种是对1993年密西西比河洪水的个案研究分析。大规模的分析是在整个美国县级尺度上进行的，表明洪水事件造成的财产损失与人口增长之间存在正相关关系。案例研究分析考察了密西西比河的一段河段和1993年受洪水影响的领土。与大规模分析相反，在这个详细的研究中没有发现显著的关系。然而，在原始数据中可以发现，洪水过后人口增长受到抑制，十年后人口增长加速，并与文献中的解释联系起来。
Human societies have learnt to cope with flood risks in several ways, the most prominent ways being engineering solutions and adaptive measures. However, from a more sustainable point of view, it can be argued that societies should avoid or at least minimize urban developments in floodplain areas. While many scientists have studied the impact of human activities on flood risk, only a few studies have investigated the opposite relationships, i.e. the impacts of past flood events on floodplain development. In this study, we make an initial attempt to understand the impact of the occurrence of flood disasters on the spatial distribution of population dynamics in floodplain areas. Two different methodologies are used to uncover this relationship, a large-scale study for the USA and a case-study analysis of the 1993 Mississippi flood. The large-scale analysis is performed at county level scale for the whole of the USA and indicates a positive relationship between property damage due to flood events and population growth. The case-study analysis examines a reach of the Mississippi river and the territory, which was affected by flooding in 1993. Contrary to the large-scale analysis, no significant relationship is found in this detailed study. However, a trend of dampened population growth right after the flood followed by an accelerated growth a decade later could be identified in the raw data and linked to explanations found in the literature.