Uncertainties in Early-Stage Capital Cost Estimation of Process Design – A Case Study on Biorefinery Design
Uncertainties in Early-Stage Capital Cost Estimation of Process Design – A Case Study on Biorefinery Design
复制标题
工艺设计早期资本成本估算的不确定性——生物精炼设计案例研究
DOI：
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发表时间：
2015
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
G. Sin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Peam Cheali;K. Gernaey;G. Sin
资本投资仅次于产品需求、销售和生产成本，是项目评估和可行性评估常用的关键指标之一。在早期设计阶段估算新产品/工艺替代方案的投资成本是一项具有挑战性的任务。这在生物炼制研究中尤其重要，因为新技术的可用信息和经验有限。提出了一种用于成本数据不确定性分析的系统方法，该方法采用（a）当成本数据可用时采用自举作为回归方法，（b）当成本数据不可用时采用蒙特卡罗技术作为基于专家输入的误差传播方法。使用该方法回顾和分析了四种著名的早期成本估算模型。以生物精炼厂的综合和设计作为案例研究，强调了成本数据的不确定性对于早期工艺设计的重要性。人们发现，成本估算的不确定性对确定最佳加工路径的影响是深远的。为了应对这一挑战，提出了一个全面的技术经济风险分析框架，以便在不确定性下做出稳健的决策。使用数量级估计的结果之一表明，二乙醚和 1,3-丁二烯的生产最有前途，由于成本估计的不确定性，经济风险分别为 0.24 MM$/a 和 4.6 MM$/a。
Capital investment, next to the product demand, sales and production costs, is one of the key metrics commonly used for project evaluation and feasibility assessment. Estimating the investment costs of a new product/process alternative during early stage design is a challenging task. This is especially important in biorefinery research, where available information and experiences with new technologies is limited. A systematic methodology for uncertainty analysis of cost data is proposed that employs (a) Bootstrapping as a regression method when cost data is available and (b) the Monte Carlo technique as an error propagation method based on expert input when cost data is not available. Four well-known models for early stage cost estimation are reviewed an analyzed using the methodology. The significance of uncertainties of cost data for early stage process design is highlighted using the synthesis and design of a biorefinery as a case study. The impact of uncertainties in cost estimation on the identification of optimal processing paths is found to be profound. To tackle this challenge, a comprehensive techno-economic risk analysis framework is presented to enable robust decision making under uncertainties. One of the results using an order-of-magnitude estimate shows that the production of diethyl ether and 1,3-butadiene are the most promising with economic risks of 0.24 MM$/a and 4.6 MM$/a due to uncertainties in cost estimations, respectively.