Unveiling human-assisted dispersal mechanisms in invasive alien insects: Integration of spatial stochastic simulation and phenology models
Unveiling human-assisted dispersal mechanisms in invasive alien insects: Integration of spatial stochastic simulation and phenology models
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DOI：
10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2010.05.012
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发表时间：
2010-08-24
影响因子：
3.1
通讯作者：
Baker, R. H. A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Carrasco, L. R.;Mumford, J. D.;Baker, R. H. A.
捕捉生物入侵在异质景观中的传播是一项复杂的建模任务，需要将传播和种群动态信息整合起来。空间随机模拟和物候模型很少被结合起来，以协助研究人类辅助的长距离扩散事件。在这里，我们开发了一个基于过程的空间显式的入侵程度模拟模型，考虑入侵昆虫的传播和检测。自然和人类辅助的扩散机制建模与个人为基础的方法，使用负指数和负幂律扩散内核和重力模型。该模型采用了一个物候子模型，使用每日温度网格的预测和时间的人口动态在每个栖息地补丁。将该模型应用于重要玉米害虫玉米根萤叶甲入侵的研究。欧洲的玉米。我们参数化和验证模型，使用最大似然法和模拟方法从历史入侵的WCR在Austria.WCR被发现遵循分层扩散在多瑙河流域的国际交通网络中发挥了关键作用，在发生长距离扩散事件。发现检测措施是有效的，海拔高度对限制WCR的传播有显着影响。空间随机模拟结合物候模型，最大似然法和预测与观察到的回归表现出高度的灵活性，抓住了在奥地利的WCR蔓延的显着特点。这种建模方法很有用，因为它可以充分利用有关外来入侵昆虫种群动态和扩散的通常有限且异质的可用信息。(C)2010爱思唯尔有限公司版权所有。
Capturing the spread of biological invasions in heterogeneous landscapes is a complex modelling task where information on both dispersal and population dynamics needs to be integrated. Spatial stochastic simulation and phenology models have rarely been combined to assist in the study of human-assisted long-distance dispersal events.Here we develop a process-based spatially explicit landscape-extent simulation model that considers the spread and detection of invasive insects. Natural and human-assisted dispersal mechanisms are modelled with an individual-based approach using negative exponential and negative power law dispersal kernels and gravity models. The model incorporates a phenology sub-model that uses daily temperature grids for the prediction and timing of the population dynamics in each habitat patch. The model was applied to the study of the invasion by the important maize pest western corn rootworm (WCR) Diabrotica virgifera ssp. virgifera in Europe. We parameterized and validated the model using maximum likelihood and simulation methods from the historical invasion of WCR in Austria.WCR was found to follow stratified dispersal where international transport networks in the Danube basin played a key role in the occurrence of long-distance dispersal events. Detection measures were found to be effective and altitude had a significant effect on limiting the spread of WCR. Spatial stochastic simulation combined with phenology models, maximum likelihood methods and predicted versus observed regression showed a high degree of flexibility that captured the salient features of WCR spread in Austria. This modelling approach is useful because it allows to fully exploit and the often limited and heterogeneous information available regarding the population dynamics and dispersal of alien invasive insects. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.