Toward a green revolution in Africa: what would it achieve, and what would it require?
Toward a green revolution in Africa: what would it achieve, and what would it require?
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1574-0862.2008.00358.x
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发表时间：
2008-11-01
影响因子：
4.1
通讯作者：
Johnson, Michael
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Diao, Xinshen;Headey, Derek;Johnson, Michael
当前的全球粮食危机再次突出表明，非洲未能实现粮食安全和减贫的代价高昂。其他较成功的发展中国家取得这些成果的手段是农业的“绿色革命”。虽然以前的研究提供了很大程度上是一个非洲绿色革命的可行性的话语评估，本文采用了更严格的方法来解决这个问题。首先，一个经济范围内的多市场模型，现有的贫困增长的弹性增强，被开发来评估粮食生产的快速加速（在以前的绿色革命）对粮食价格，消费和需求，农民收入和贫困的可能影响。我们的研究结果表明，主食生产的快速增长，加上更加一体化的区域市场，将使主要作物中的消费者和生产者的粮食价格分别降低约20-40%和10-20%。这意味着农业收入大幅增加，农业年增长率达到6.5%或更高，收入增长和粮食安全更广泛，7000多万非洲人摆脱了贫困。文章最后强调了实现这些结果所需的基本政策行动和资源。
The current global food crisis has reemphasized the costliness of Africa's failure to achieve food security and poverty reduction. The instrument by which other more successful developing countries achieved these outcomes was a "Green Revolution" in agriculture. While previous research has provided largely discursive appraisals of the viability of an African Green Revolution, this article adopts a more rigorous methodology to address that question. First, an economy-wide multimarket model, augmented with existing poverty-growth elasticities, is developed to assess the likely impacts of a rapid acceleration in food production (of the kind witnessed in previous Green Revolutions) on food prices, consumption and demand, farmer revenue, and poverty. Our results suggest that a rapid growth in staple production, together with more integrated regional markets, would reduce food prices by roughly 20-40% for consumers and 10-20% for producers among the major crops. This translates into a large rise in farm revenues, annual agricultural growth rates of 6.5% or higher, broader income growth and food security, and over 70 million Africans being lifted out of poverty. The article concludes by emphasizing the kinds of fundamental policy actions and resources that would be required for achieving these outcomes.