Simulating the Cinema Market: How Cross-Cultural Differences in Social Influence Explain Box Office Distributions
Simulating the Cinema Market: How Cross-Cultural Differences in Social Influence Explain Box Office Distributions
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1540-5885.2011.00792.x
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发表时间：
2011-03
影响因子：
10.5
通讯作者：
Thijs L. J. Broekhuizen;S. Delre;Anna Torres
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Thijs L. J. Broekhuizen;S. Delre;Anna Torres
本文采用混合方法来展示社会影响的跨文化差异如何解释不同市场中市场份额分布的差异。首先，我们开发了一个基于智能体的现实模型，该模型模拟电影观众的行为，并纳入观众在观影前后对彼此施加的社会影响。模拟结果表明，市场不平等是由社会影响决定的。特别是，我们发现源自他人预期行为的社会影响（协同消费效应）比源自他人过去行为的社会影响（模仿效应）对市场不平等的影响更大。其次，我们通过进行一项跨国调查，以霍夫斯泰德的集体主义 - 个人主义指数的跨文化差异作为市场中社会影响水平的代理变量，对模拟结果进行了实证验证。在中国、荷兰、意大利和西班牙进行的这项实地研究结果实证表明，社会影响在不同国家存在差异，并且这些差异可以解释电影市场份额离散程度的明显差异。实证调查通过揭示霍夫斯泰德的集体主义 - 个人主义指数得分与社会影响程度之间的U型关系，进一步有助于理解社会影响的作用。
This paper uses a mixed method approach to show how cross-cultural differences in social influences can explain differences in distributions of market shares in different markets. First, we develop a realistic agent-based model that mimics the behavior of movie visitors and incorporates the social influences visitors exert on each other before and after visiting movies. The simulation results indicate that market inequalities are determined by social influences. In particular, we find that the social influence derived from the intended behaviors of others (coordinated consumption effect) has a stronger effect on market inequalities than the social influence derived from the past behavior of others (imitation effect). Second, we empirically validate the simulation results by conducting a cross-national survey that makes use of the cross-cultural differences in Hofstede's collectivism-individualism index as a proxy for the level of social influence present in a market. The results of this field study, performed in China, the Netherlands, Italy, and Spain, empirically show that social influences differ across countries, and that these differences can explain the apparent differences in the dispersion of movies' market shares. The empirical survey further contributes to understanding the role of social influence by revealing a U-shaped relationship between Hofstede's collectivism-individualism index score and the degree of social influence.