Carbon savings with transatlantic trade in pellets: accounting for market-driven effects
Carbon savings with transatlantic trade in pellets: accounting for market-driven effects
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跨大西洋颗粒贸易的碳减排：考虑市场驱动的影响
DOI：
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
M. Khanna
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Weiwei Wang;P. Dwivedi;R. Abt;M. Khanna
来自美国的颗粒出口正在大幅增长，以满足欧盟对可再生能源的需求。这种跨大西洋的颗粒贸易引发了人们对这些颗粒的温室气体（GHG）强度及其对美国传统林产品市场的影响的质疑。本文研究了从美国出口的颗粒的温室气体强度，无论是森林生物质或森林和农业生物质的组合。我们开发了一个综合的动态的，价格内生的，部分均衡模型的林业，农业和运输部门在美国调查不仅直接的生命周期的温室气体强度的颗粒，但也伴随着间接的市场和土地利用的影响引起的价格变化的森林和农产品在2007-2032年期间。在仅用森林生物质或森林和农业生物质满足高和低颗粒需求的不同情景中，我们发现颗粒发电的温室气体强度比煤电低74%至85%。我们还发现，使用农业和森林生物质生产的颗粒的温室气体强度比仅使用森林生物质生产的颗粒低28%至34%。由于采伐轮作、土地利用和传统木材生产的变化引起的森林碳储量的直接和间接变化所产生的温室气体效应占仅由森林生物质生产的颗粒的总体温室气体强度的11%至26%;这些效应对于森林和农业生物质的使用是负面的。
Exports of pellets from the United States (US) are growing significantly to meet the demand for renewable energy in the European Union. This transatlantic trade in pellets has raised questions about the greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity of these pellets and their effects on conventional forest product markets in the US. This paper examines the GHG intensity of pellets exported from the US using either forest biomass only or forest and agricultural biomass combined. We develop an integrated dynamic, price-endogenous, partial equilibrium model of the forestry, agricultural, and transportation sectors in the US to investigate not only the direct life-cycle GHG intensity of pellets but also the accompanying indirect market and land use effects induced by changes in prices of forest and agricultural products over the 2007–2032 period. Across different scenarios of high and low pellet demand that can be met with either forest biomass only or with forest and agricultural biomass, we find that the GHG intensity of pellet based electricity is 74% to 85% lower than that of coal-based electricity. We also find that the GHG intensity of pellets produced using agricultural and forest biomass is 28% to 34% lower than that of pellets produced using forest biomass only. GHG effects due to induced direct and indirect changes in forest carbon stock caused by changes in harvest rotations, changes in land use and in conventional wood production account for 11% to 26% of the overall GHG intensity of pellets produced from forest biomass only; these effects are negative with the use of forest and agricultural biomass.