The impact of the new Northern Ireland protocol: can Northern Ireland enjoy the best of both worlds?
The impact of the new Northern Ireland protocol: can Northern Ireland enjoy the best of both worlds?
复制标题
新北爱尔兰协议的影响：北爱尔兰能否两全其美？
DOI：
10.1080/00343404.2021.1994547
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发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Gioele Figus
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Geoffroy Duparc;Gioele Figus
摘要 自 2021 年 1 月 1 日起，新的北爱尔兰议定书 (NI) 规范北爱尔兰与欧盟 (EU) 和英国 (GB) 的贸易。这些规则意味着北爱尔兰和英国的贸易安排存在分歧，造成同一国家的两个地区之间发生贸易摩擦的前所未有的情况。在本文中，我们使用多部门经济模型来捕捉潜在的非关税壁垒和关税对北爱尔兰贸易的影响。模拟结果表明，英国与欧盟关系减弱将对北爱尔兰经济产生更大的负面影响。然而，这种情况可能会因北爱尔兰公司用英国的中间投入替代欧盟进口的能力而减少。
ABSTRACT From the 1 January 2021 the new Protocol on Northern Ireland (NI) regulates NI’s trade with the European Union (EU) and Great Britain (GB). These rules imply divergence between trade arrangements in NI and GB creating an unprecedented situation where trade frictions arise between two regions of the same country. In this paper we use a multi-sector economic model to capture the impact that potential non-tariff barriers and tariffs will have on trade in NI. Simulation results demonstrate that a weaker relation between GB and the EU will have a greater negative impact on the NI economy. However, this may be reduced by the ability of NI firms to substitute intermediate inputs from GB for EU imports.