Analysis & commentary. Health care reform is likely to widen federal budget deficits, not reduce them.
Analysis & commentary. Health care reform is likely to widen federal budget deficits, not reduce them.
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分析
作者：
D. Holtz;Michael J Ramlet
联邦政府面临着令人畏惧的财政前景，这使得《患者保护和平价医疗法案》的预算影响变得更加重要。国会预算办公室（CBO）的官方分析表明，未来十年及以后赤字将适度削减。我们研究了国会预算办公室预测的基础，得出的结论是，它建立在一个不稳固的基础之上，包括省略成本、从其他权利转移的保费以及政治上可疑的支出削减和收入增加。更全面、更现实的预测表明，新的改革法将在前十年使赤字增加超过5000亿美元，在接下来的十年增加近1.5万亿美元。
The federal government faces a daunting fiscal outlook, which makes the budgetary impact of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act even more important. The official Congressional Budget Office (CBO) analysis indicates modest deficit reduction over the next ten years and beyond. We examine the underpinnings of the CBO's projection and conclude that it is built on a shaky foundation of omitted costs, premiums shifted from other entitlements, and politically dubious spending cuts and revenue increases. A more comprehensive and realistic projection suggests that the new reform law will raise the deficit by more than $500 billion during the first ten years and by nearly $1.5 trillion in the following decade.