Variation in vulnerability to extreme-temperature-related mortality in Japan: A 40-year time-series analysis
Variation in vulnerability to extreme-temperature-related mortality in Japan: A 40-year time-series analysis
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DOI：
10.1016/j.envres.2015.03.031
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发表时间：
2015-07-01
影响因子：
8.3
通讯作者：
Hagihara, Akihito
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Onozuka, Daisuke;Hagihara, Akihito
背景资料：虽然近年来已经记录了极热和极冷对死亡率的影响，但很少有研究调查对极端温度敏感性的变化是否已经改变了Japanes.Methods：我们使用了1973-2012年日本福冈每日总死亡率和平均温度的数据。我们使用时间序列分析来评估极端高温和低温对全因死亡率的影响，按十年、性别和年龄分层，并根据时间趋势进行调整。我们使用了一个多变量的荟萃分析与分布滞后非线性模型来估计汇总的非线性滞后响应关系与极端温度对mortality.Results：死亡率的相对风险增加在所有几十年的极端高温，随着时间的推移呈下降趋势。在整个研究期间，极端寒冷期间的死亡风险较高，数十年来呈分散模式。荟萃分析显示，极端高温和低温都会增加死亡风险。冷的影响被延迟，持续了几天，而热的影响出现得很快，并没有持续很长时间。结论：我们的研究提供了定量的证据表明，极端高温和低温显着和非线性相关的死亡率的风险增加，有很大的变化。我们的研究结果表明，及时的预防措施是非常重要的极端高温，而几天的保护，应提供极端低温。(C)2015爱思唯尔公司All rights reserved.
Background: Although the impact of extreme heat and cold on mortality has been documented in recent years, few studies have investigated whether variation in susceptibility to extreme temperatures has changed in Japan.Methods: We used data on daily total mortality and mean temperatures in Fukuoka, Japan, for 1973-2012. We used time-series analysis to assess the effects of extreme hot and low temperatures on all-cause mortality, stratified by decade, gender, and age, adjusting for time trends. We used a multivariate meta-analysis with a distributed lag non-linear model to estimate pooled non-linear lag-response relationships associated with extreme temperatures on mortality.Results: The relative risk of mortality increased during heat extremes in all decades, with a declining trend over time. The mortality risk was higher during cold extremes for the entire study period, with a dispersed pattern across decades. Meta-analysis showed that both heat and cold extremes increased the risk of mortality. Cold effects were delayed and lasted for several days, whereas heat effects appeared quickly and did not last long.Conclusions: Our study provides quantitative evidence that extreme heat and low temperatures were significantly and non-linearly associated with the increased risk of mortality with substantial variation. Our results suggest that timely preventative measures are important for extreme high temperatures, whereas several days' protection should be provided for extreme low temperatures. (C) 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.