The Belt & Road Initiative and China's influence in Southeast Asia
The Belt & Road Initiative and China's influence in Southeast Asia
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DOI：
10.1080/09512748.2018.1513950
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发表时间：
2019-07-04
期刊：
影响因子：
2.1
通讯作者：
Gong, Xue
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gong, Xue
一带一路倡议自2013年底提出以来，引起了全球的极大关注。政界领袖、商界人士、媒体和分析人士对一带一路前景的看法表面上存在两极分化。一个团体断言，一带一路将极大地提高北京的全球影响力，特别是在中国所在的社区。另一群人猜测，一带一路预计会因为难以克服的挑战而失败，预计会失败。本文加入了这场辩论，探讨了一带一路对东南亚地区秩序的影响。笔者持中间立场，认为既不能轻易否定，也不能高估一带一路的实际影响。更有可能的是，中国在东南亚的影响力将会增加，但不会达到在该地区建立以中国为中心的秩序的程度。这可以由三个主要因素解释：(A)东南亚国家联盟(东盟)及其成员国对一带一路的反应，(B)东南亚其他大国提出的替代基础设施倡议的影响，以及(C)中国兑现承诺的能力值得怀疑。
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), since its inception in late 2013, has drawn tremendous global attention. The views of political leaders, business people, the media, and analysts on the prospect of the BRI are ostensibly polarized. One group asserts that the BRI will dramatically increase Beijing's global influence, particularly in China's neighborhood. Another group surmises that the BRI is expected to fail because of insurmountable challenges and is expected to fail. This article joins the debate by exploring the impact of the BRI on Southeast Asia's regional order. The author holds a middle-ground position and argues that the actual impact of the BRI should neither be easily dismissed nor overestimated. More likely, through the BRI, China's influence in Southeast Asia will increase but not to the extent of forging a Sinocentric order in the region. This can be explained by three major factors: (a) the responses of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and its member states toward the BRI, (b) the effects of alternative infrastructure initiatives proposed by other major powers in Southeast Asia, and (c) China's questionable ability to deliver its BRI promises.