Optimal temperature for malaria transmission is dramatically lower than previously predicted
Optimal temperature for malaria transmission is dramatically lower than previously predicted
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DOI：
10.1111/ele.12015
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发表时间：
2013-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
8.8
通讯作者：
Lafferty, Kevin D.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Mordecai, Erin A.;Paaijmans, Krijn P.;Lafferty, Kevin D.
蚊媒和疟原虫的生态影响疟疾的发病率、季节性传播和地理范围。到目前为止，大多数疟疾模型都假设蚊子和寄生虫的生活史特征对温度的反应是恒定的或线性的，预测31摄氏度是最佳传播温度。这些模型与追溯到近世纪的传播实地观察不一致。我们建立了一个模型，更现实的生态假设昆虫的热生理。我们的模型，其中包括经验得出的非线性热响应，预测最佳疟疾传播在25摄氏度（6摄氏度低于以前的模型）。此外，该模型预测，在温度> 28摄氏度时，传播会急剧下降，改变了对气候变化将如何影响疟疾的预测。关于非洲疟疾传播风险的一个大型数据集证实了25摄氏度的最佳温度和28摄氏度以上的下降。使用这些更精确的非线性热响应模型将有助于理解当前和未来温度状况对疾病传播的影响。
The ecology of mosquito vectors and malaria parasites affect the incidence, seasonal transmission and geographical range of malaria. Most malaria models to date assume constant or linear responses of mosquito and parasite life-history traits to temperature, predicting optimal transmission at 31 degrees C. These models are at odds with field observations of transmission dating back nearly a century. We build a model with more realistic ecological assumptions about the thermal physiology of insects. Our model, which includes empirically derived nonlinear thermal responses, predicts optimal malaria transmission at 25 degrees C (6 degrees C lower than previous models). Moreover, the model predicts that transmission decreases dramatically at temperatures > 28 degrees C, altering predictions about how climate change will affect malaria. A large data set on malaria transmission risk in Africa validates both the 25 degrees C optimum and the decline above 28 degrees C. Using these more accurate nonlinear thermal-response models will aid in understanding the effects of current and future temperature regimes on disease transmission.