Projecting the need for hip replacement over the next three decades: influence of changing demography and threshold for surgery
Projecting the need for hip replacement over the next three decades: influence of changing demography and threshold for surgery
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DOI：
10.1136/ard.58.9.569
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发表时间：
1999-09-01
影响因子：
27.4
通讯作者：
Silman, A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Birrell, F;Johnell, O;Silman, A
目的估计全髋关节置换术在英国在未来30年的需求。方法预测的年龄和性别特异性髋关节置换术在英国超过10年的时间间隔，考虑到人口的变化和外推的关节成形术率从瑞典;结果-假设年龄和性别特异性关节成形术率没有变化，仅由于人口变化，估计髋关节置换的数量在未来30年内将增加40%。男性（51%）的比例变化将大大高于女性（33%），85岁以上的男性髋关节置换数量将增加一倍。手术门槛的改变可能会使这一数字进一步增加，达到目前数字的两倍。在未来30年内，英国人口的需求将得到满足。
Objectives-To estimate the requirement for total hip replacement in the United Kingdom over the next three decades.Methods-Projection of age and sex specific hip replacements in the UK over 10 year intervals taking account of demographic change and the extrapolation of arthroplasty rates from Sweden; a country with recently introduced guidelines.Results-Assuming no change in the age and sex specific arthroplasty rates, the estimated number of hip replacements will increase by 40% over the next 30 year period because of demographic change alone. The proportionate change will be substantially higher in men (51%) than women (33%), with a doubling of the number of male hip replacements in those aged over 85. Changes in the threshold for surgery may increase this further-up to double the current number.Conclusion-A sharp rise in hip replacements will. be needed to satisfy needs in the UK population over the next 30 years.