Persistence of mosquito vector and dengue: Impact of seasonal and diurnal temperature variations
Persistence of mosquito vector and dengue: Impact of seasonal and diurnal temperature variations
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DOI：
10.3934/dcdsb.2021048
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发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
N. Vaidya;Feng-Bin Wang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
N. Vaidya;Feng-Bin Wang
登革热是一种蚊媒疾病，对人类健康构成巨大负担，全球每年约有3.9亿人感染登革热。环境温度在蚊子的生命周期以及蚊子-人-蚊子登革热传播周期中起着重要作用。虽然以前的研究为了解登革热疾病提供了有用的见解，但很少强调环境温度变化，特别是昼夜变化在蚊子媒介和登革热动力学中的作用。在这项研究中，我们开发了一个数学模型来研究季节和昼夜温度变化对蚊媒和登革热持续存在的影响。重要的是，使用阈值动力系统方法，我们的模型，我们制定了蚊子繁殖数量和感染入侵阈值，这完全决定了蚊子种群和登革热传播的全局阈值动力学，分别。我们的模型预测，环境温度的季节和昼夜变化可以是蚊媒和登革热持续存在的决定性因素。总体而言，我们对蚊子繁殖数量和感染入侵阈值的数值估计显示，昼夜或季节性温度变化较大的地方往往受到蚊子数量和登革热流行的负担较小。我们的研究结果为昼夜温度作用的理论理解提供了新的见解，这将有助于控制蚊媒和登革热的传播。
Dengue, a mosquito-borne disease, poses a tremendous burden to human health with about 390 million annual dengue infections worldwide. The environmental temperature plays a major role in the mosquito life-cycle as well as the mosquito-human-mosquito dengue transmission cycle. While previous studies have provided useful insights into the understanding of dengue diseases, there is little emphasis put on the role of environmental temperature variation, especially diurnal variation, in the mosquito vector and dengue dynamics. In this study, we develop a mathematical model to investigate the impact of seasonal and diurnal temperature variations on the persistence of mosquito vector and dengue. Importantly, using a threshold dynamical system approach to our model, we formulate the mosquito reproduction number and the infection invasion threshold, which completely determine the global threshold dynamics of mosquito population and dengue transmission, respectively. Our model predicts that both seasonal and diurnal variations of the environmental temperature can be determinant factors for the persistence of mosquito vector and dengue. In general, our numerical estimates of the mosquito reproduction number and the infection invasion threshold show that places with higher diurnal or seasonal temperature variations have a tendency to suffer less from the burden of mosquito population and dengue epidemics. Our results provide novel insights into the theoretical understanding of the role of diurnal temperature, which can be beneficial for the control of mosquito vector and dengue spread.