Reduced-complexity model for the impact of anthropogenic CO2 emissions on future glacial cycles
Reduced-complexity model for the impact of anthropogenic CO2 emissions on future glacial cycles
复制标题
人为二氧化碳排放对未来冰川循环影响的简化复杂性模型
DOI：
10.5194/esd-12-1275-2021
复制
发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
7.3
通讯作者：
A. Ganopolski
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Stefanie Talento;A. Ganopolski
抽象的。我们提出了一种降低复杂性的基于过程的模型
全球冰量、大气二氧化碳的长期演变
浓度和全球平均温度。模型的唯一外部强迫
是轨道强迫和人为二氧化碳累积排放量。的
模型由三耦合非线性微分系统组成
代表与演化相关的物理机制的方程
气候-冰盖-碳循环系统的时间尺度长于
数千年。使用古气候校准模型参数
两个地球系统中间模型的重建和结果
复杂性。对于一系列参数值，该模型成功地
再现过去 800 kyr 的冰期-间冰期循环，
模拟和全球古冰量之间的最佳相关性为 0.86。使用
不同的模型实现，我们对可能的情况进行评估
自然和多种因素下未来一百万年的轨迹
化石燃料二氧化碳释放情景。在自然场景中，模型
指定该时期出现长间冰期的概率很高
当前至 120 kyr 之间以及当前之后的 400 至 500 kyr 之间
出现后。下一次冰川开始最有可能发生
～50 kyr 后出现完全冰川条件发展
〜90 kyr 之后。该模型表明，即使已经
达到的累积 CO2 人为排放量 (500 Pg C) 能够
影响气候演变长达五十万年，表明
下一次冰川作用在接下来的 120 公里内不太可能开始。高累积人为二氧化碳排放量（3000 Pg C 或更高），
如果能够在未来 2 到 3 个世纪内实现
人类不会遏制化石燃料的使用，很可能会引发
下半年北半球陆地无冰
一百万年，推迟下一次冰川的自然发生
从现在或之后的 600 kyr 开始。
Abstract. We propose a reduced-complexity process-based model for
the long-term evolution of the global ice volume, atmospheric CO2
concentration, and global mean temperature. The model's only external forcings
are the orbital forcing and anthropogenic CO2 cumulative emissions. The
model consists of a system of three coupled non-linear differential
equations representing physical mechanisms relevant for the evolution of
the climate–ice sheet–carbon cycle system on timescales longer than
thousands of years. Model parameters are calibrated using paleoclimate
reconstructions and the results of two Earth system models of intermediate
complexity. For a range of parameters values, the model is successful in
reproducing the glacial–interglacial cycles of the last 800 kyr, with the
best correlation between modelled and global paleo-ice volume of 0.86. Using
different model realisations, we produce an assessment of possible
trajectories for the next 1 million years under natural and several
fossil-fuel CO2 release scenarios. In the natural scenario, the model
assigns high probability of occurrence of long interglacials in the periods
between the present and 120 kyr after present and between 400 and 500 kyr
after present. The next glacial inception is most likely to occur
∼50 kyr after present with full glacial conditions developing
∼90 kyr after present. The model shows that even already
achieved cumulative CO2 anthropogenic emissions (500 Pg C) are capable
of affecting the climate evolution for up to half a million years, indicating
that the beginning of the next glaciation is highly unlikely in the next 120 kyr. High cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions (3000 Pg C or higher),
which could potentially be achieved in the next 2 to 3 centuries if
humanity does not curb the usage of fossil fuels, will most likely provoke
Northern Hemisphere landmass ice-free conditions throughout the next half
a million years, postponing the natural occurrence of the next glacial
inception to 600 kyr after present or later.
影响因子：
4.3
作者：
Ganopolski, Andrey;Brovkin, Victor
通讯作者：
Brovkin, Victor
影响因子：
64.8
作者：
Tierney, Jessica E.;Zhu, Jiang;Poulsen, Christopher J.
通讯作者：
Poulsen, Christopher J.