Greater committed warming after accounting for the pattern effect
Greater committed warming after accounting for the pattern effect
复制标题
考虑模式效应后更大的持续变暖
DOI：
10.1038/s41558-020-00955-x
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发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Minghuai Wang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chen Zhou;Mark D. Zelinka;Andrew E. Dessler;Minghuai Wang
我们星球的能量平衡对海面温度和海冰变化的空间不均匀性很敏感，但这在气候预测中通常被忽略。在这里，我们展示了近几十年来的能量预算可以通过结合有效辐射强迫、线性辐射阻尼和这种模式效应的变化来关闭。这种模式效应与 2000 年代地球的净能量失衡程度相当，但符号相反，表明其在根据观测预测未来气候时的重要性。考虑到模式效应后，当前强迫下全球变暖的最佳估计值从 1.31 K（0.99–2.33 K，第 5–95 个百分位）上升到 2 K 以上，而在持续的长期强迫下，2100 年的持续变暖从 1.32 K（0.94–2.03 K）上升到超过 2 K。 1.5 K，尽管其幅度对海面温度数据集很敏感。需要进一步限制模式效应以减少气候预测的不确定性。
Our planet’s energy balance is sensitive to spatial inhomogeneities in sea surface temperature and sea ice changes, but this is typically ignored in climate projections. Here, we show the energy budget during recent decades can be closed by combining changes in effective radiative forcing, linear radiative damping and this pattern effect. The pattern effect is of comparable magnitude but opposite sign to Earth’s net energy imbalance in the 2000s, indicating its importance when predicting the future climate on the basis of observations. After the pattern effect is accounted for, the best-estimate value of committed global warming at present-day forcing rises from 1.31 K (0.99–2.33 K, 5th–95th percentile) to over 2 K, and committed warming in 2100 with constant long-lived forcing increases from 1.32 K (0.94–2.03 K) to over 1.5 K, although the magnitude is sensitive to sea surface temperature dataset. Further constraints on the pattern effect are needed to reduce climate projection uncertainty.