on estimates of
on estimates of
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的估计
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通讯作者：
Biostatistics Branch
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作者：
J. Bigelow;D. Dunson;Biostatistics Branch
古生物多样性模式的估计一直依赖于数据集，这些数据集将每个时间间隔不同大小的地理区域的分类事件汇总在一起。从本质上讲，这种估计假设物种面积效应，即更多的物种记录在更大的地理区域，是可以忽略不计的化石数据。我们测试了这一假设，使用新开发的中新世哺乳动物测绘项目数据库的北美西部的化石哺乳动物及其相关的分析工具，以经验确定的地理区域，有助于物种多样性计数在连续的时间箱。结果表明，物种面积效应显着影响化石物种的计数，就像可变的空间采样影响多样性计数现代景观。消除这种偏见表明，一些传统上公认的古生物多样性高峰只是物种面积效应的产物，而其他人则值得进一步关注。这一发现意味着，有很大的潜力，完善现有的时间序列估计的古生物多样性，并使用物种面积的关系，更可靠地了解的规模和时间等生物学上重要的事件，如灭绝，谱系多样化，和长期趋势的生态结构。
Estimates of paleodiversity patterns through time have relied on datasets that lump taxonomic occurrences from geographic areas of varying size per interval of time. In essence, such estimates assume that the species–area effect, whereby more species are recorded from larger geographic areas, is negligible for fossil data. We tested this assumption by using the newly developed Miocene Mammal Mapping Project database of western North American fossil mammals and its associated analysis tools to empirically determine the geographic area that contributed to species diversity counts in successive temporal bins. The results indicate that a species–area effect markedly influences counts of fossil species, just as variable spatial sampling influences diversity counts on the modern landscape. Removing this bias suggests some traditionally recognized peaks in paleodiversity are just artifacts of the species–area effect while others stand out as meriting further attention. This discovery means that there is great potential for refining existing time-series estimates of paleodiversity, and for using species–area relationships to more reliably understand the magnitude and timing of such biotically important events as extinction, lineage diversification, and long-term trends in ecological structure.